To Squib Or Not To Squib?
As fans so often do, there has been much dissection of the Bears’ last-second meltdown against the Atlanta Falcons yesterday afternoon. People are blaming the clock keeper. (I ain’t buying that one so much.) Other have turned to the Bears’ decision to squib-kick with 11 seconds left on the clock. This argument has some merit. Here is the thing on that, though: it’s not so much that squibbing was a bad idea. I think after Jerious Norwood just burned the Bears for 85 yards on the previous kickoff, the squib is an OK idea. And even if that return didn’t happen, it’s best not to give the opposing team an opportunity to run the ball all the way back and beat you like that. (A squib, by and large, avoids a big return.)
So, I think the Bears played conventional wisdom here, and looked to their defense to make the one stop necessary to win the game, or perhaps even give up a somewhat big play and keep the Falcons out of field goal range. But, therein lies the problem: it was a poorly executed squib by Robbie Gould. The ball did not get past the Falcons coverage team and into the line of returners. Therefore, they got the ball at their own 44, they got the one pass they needed to get into field-goal range, and yup: ball game.
Perhaps, as David Haugh points out, it was more blown coverage than clock controversies or kicking strategies:
Should Lovie Smith have had Robbie Gould squib-kick the last kickoff? Could Bob Babich have called a more aggressive defense to get in the way of receivers on the final pass play? Was the Georgia Dome clock operator overly generous to the home team by saving one second for the final field goal? All questions can fuel healthy debate. But one fact was hard to dispute: If cornerback Marcus Hamilton drops deep enough to prevent Matt Ryan from throwing the last pass downfield, Bears win. There is no 26-yard completion to Michael Jenkins, no game-winning 48-yard field goal by Jason Elam.
Yeah, that about sums it up just right.
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I did mention, though, that they were exclusively looking to avoid the big return -- which, you're right -- is about the only way to lose if they do a normal kickoff. And you're right: it's not rocket science. Lovie Smith isn't dumb; he just probably liked his odds better doing a squib-kick and hoping the defense held for one possession then getting burned on a return. (Remember, all the defensive injuries transferred to the special teams crew, too.)
I'm willing to bet if Gould had kicked it back all the way and the Falcons housed it, people would be ticked the Bears didn't squib-kick. Just the nature of the fandom. (Not saying you specifically, tough.)
And if Marcus Hamilton drops back, it's a non-issue, and the Bears steal a win on the road.