Who Gets The Ball In Overtime? The NFL Should Adopt An Auction System

By Jon Bois

Every season, fans whine about the NFL’s stupid coin-flip overtime system, and every offseason, the league pretends that it’s seriously willing to consider alternatives. The running logic is that the system, which gives the receiving team a 60/40 advantage, reduces ties. But what’s worse, an honest tie or a weighted win/loss?

College football’s overtime system isn’t bad, of course, but a piece I read over at Slate makes a pretty compelling case for an “auction system.”

An even more elegant solution to the overtime problem was proposed in 2002 by Chris Quanbeck, an electrical engineer (and Green Bay Packers fan). Quanbeck’s idea was to auction off possession of the ball in the natural currency of the game: field position. The team that was willing to begin closest to its own goal line would receive the privilege of possession.

Football’s number crunchers reckon that this “privilege” turns dubious about 15 to 20 yards away from your own goal line. That is, the expected value of having the ball so far back is negative—it’s more likely that your opponent will score before you do.

I love it. It replaces an element of chance with a unique element of strategy. If your team’s offense is strong, offer to take possession at your own ten-yard line. If defense is your team’s strong suit, start conservatively (say, the 20-yard line) and try to bait the opposing coach into out-bidding you and taking possession at his own ten-yard line.

Columbia University’s school of economics performed a report on overtime possession systems, in fact, and determined that the auction system is the fairest of any that have been proposed. It’s a good idea that fans would like, but head coaches fear change, so I guess this is what we’ll continue to stew over for every offseason over the next decade.

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