Stephen Strasburg is as close to a sure thing as an amateur baseball prospect can get. At age 20, he already has terrific velocity and movement on his fastball. He struck out 23 batters in a game while pitching for San Diego State. He pitched for Team USA in the Olympics and posted a 1.64 ERA. The movie Spider-Man was based on events that actually happened to Stephen Strasburg. He is for real.

Tonight, the Nationals will certainly select Strasburg first overall in this year’s draft, and after that, they’ll probably spend a month or two negotiating with his agent, Scott Boras. Boras, reportedly, is looking for six years and $50 million for Strasburg before he takes the mound. Again: $50 million for a player who has not thrown a single major league pitch. If Strasburg lives up to expectations, he’ll make history. And if he somehow turns out a bust, he’ll still make history.

Has anyone, in any field, ever, been paid anywhere close to $50 million without prior professional experience? Suppose that after six years, it becomes clear that Strasburg is a Todd Van Poppel or Brien Taylor. He retires from baseball. He lives until he’s 90 years old. If he opts to hide his $50 million under his mattress, he’ll have enough for about $715,000 a year (before taxes) for the rest of his life. If he invests the money and/or gains interest, he’ll have plenty more than that. All for six years of work.

Maybe this is a lame line of thinking, but I swear to God, if I were Strasburg, I wouldn’t be all that sore if my arm magically went dead after a year. I mean, $715,000 a year? That’s almost as much as I make.