As It Turns Out, Raul Ibanez Has Done This Before
Jon wrote about this yesterday afternoon, but it bears repeating: yesterday was one of those disappointing days. Disappointing because an otherwise thoughtful and well-researched post by Jerod Morris of Midwest Sports Fan — who I’ve been friendly with over e-mail once or twice — got totally blown out of proportion as a blogger accusing Raul Ibanez of taking steroids, namely because Ibanez was angrily quoted with one of those “blogger in his mother’s basement” lines when someone brought it to his attention.
But if you actually take the time to sit down and read the thing, steroids gets a very small mention, and there is no clear-cut accusation. There is a small speculation, which I think is fair in this day and age. Rick Telander was a bit more harsh when he brought up steroids and Ryan Theriot this year; I didn’t see his colleagues getting all hot and bothered about it. And unlike Morris, Telander didn’t spend 75 percent of his column searching for reasons other than steroids for his home run rate early on; he just accused.*
*In fairness to Telander, who I greatly enjoy and respect, it was more of rallying cry against MLB for their lax policies on PED use than an out and out “Ryan Theriot is doing steroids.”
But leave it to the Kansas City Star’s Joe Posnanski — who besides being one of the (if not the) best sportswriter in the country, understands and appreciates the intersection between blogging and journalism better than any of his colleagues — to really crack the nut on why Ibanez has gotten off to such a hot start at the age of 37.
He always goes on these type of tears; he just so happens to have started out the season this year on one.
The reason: When Raul Ibanez is hot, he’s HOT. There’s aren’t many people in baseball like him.
Look: Through 55 games, Ibanez was hitting .329/.386/.676 with 19 homers.
OK, let’s start in 2002. That year, Ibanez had a 50-game streak — June 7 to August 2 — when he hit .328/.385/.704 with 15 doubles, 5 triples, 15 homers. He drove in 54 runs. Few noticed because the Royals were abysmal that year, and it was in the middle of the season. But that stretch, you will note, is about as good as the stretch he’s on now. In some ways, it’s even better.
In 2003, he had a 55-game stretch where he hit .326/.360/.514 … not as good, but pretty damned good.
In 2004, he hit .365 over a 54-game stretch. In 2005, he got off to a dreadful start and then hit .330/.400/.524 over his next 55 games. In 2006, he hit 18 homers and drove in 57 RBIs in a 52-game stretch.
The last 52 games of the 2007 season, Ibanez hit .363/.425/.652 with 15 homers.
Last year, for 55 games, July 12 to Sept. 14, he hit .374/.435/.648 with 17 doubles, 2 triples, 13 homers. And that, you might remember, was in Seattle and a lousy hitters’ ballpark.
This is a man who, when he gets hot, absolutely tears up pitchers. I’ve seen it up close. He has had a 50-to-60 game hot streak EVERY SINGLE YEAR since 2002. Now, true, this time around, his hot streak started with Game 1. And why not? He was in a new league, in a new ballpark, facing pitchers who had not seen him as much. He’s in more of a fastball/slider/change-up league, which is in his comfort zone (rather than curveballs and split fingered fastballs which, generally, have eaten him up).
Pardon the long blockquote there, but just wanted to make sure Joe’s point came through in totality. Besides some of the things Jerod mentioned — park factor helping him, etc. — this seems to complete the Raul Ibanez hot start theory.
And without Jerod’s initial post, we may have never known the full story.
UPDATE: One other thing I want to mention here, in talking with Eamonn right now on IM, is that the “when he’s hot, he’s HOT” theory was hard to know about unless you’ve followed Ibanez’s career very carefully, as Posnanski clearly has. They are friends, and he played in Kansas City.
Eamonn drew this analogy: “It’d be like if someone was questioning why you were writing a certain way at the age of 40. And I’d be like, “Look, he wrote this way for six months when we were 24, and then again at 27, and so on. Other people wouldn’t have that same familiarity to immediately make that point.”
UPDATE TWO: Some other takes on this that are far better than mine: Craig Calcaterra | A.J. Daulerio | ‘Duk


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