Heading into tonight’s tilt with the Padres, the Cubs are six games back of the Cardinals. They have 45 games left in the season; the Cardinals have 41. Baseball Prospectus is now giving the Cubs just a 10 percent chance of winning the NL Central, and a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs. These are not good odds, especially when three weeks ago, they had an almost 50 percent chance of seeing the playoffs.

So, looking at this from a very basic level, if the Cubs manage to go 26-19 the rest of the way, and the Cardinals regress and play .414 ball (17-24), the Cubs will finish the year as an 86-76 team, and the Cards finish the year at 85-77. The Cubs then skip their way into the playoffs.

One thing not in the Cubs’ favor looking at the stretch run? They’re 25-35 away from the Friendly Confines this summer, and still have a road series with the Dodgers (this weekend) and St. Louis (Sept. 18-20). If the Cards haven’t already put them away by then, that might be the deciding weekend.

Of the Cubs’ remaining 45 games, 21 are on the road.

The Cubs are on life support here, which is obvious to anyone watching the team these past two weeks. But no one’s pulling the plug just yet.