There’s been a lot of chatter this morning about whether or not Bill Belichick is an idiot for deciding to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the Pats’ own 28-yard line with 2:08 to go when his team was up six. On the surface, this does seem a bit silly: if you don’t make it past the first-down marker, the Colts only have to go 28-29 yards in two minutes for a game-winning drive. And that’s exactly what happened: the Pats were stopped short, and Peyton Manning lead the Colts to victory on a game-winning drive.

You rarely, if ever, see an NFL coach go for it this deep in his territory with these kind of results at stake. But just because you don’t see it that often, doesn’t mean it doesn’t come with logic behind it. There’s been studies that show it makes sense for teams to go for it on fourth down every time.

And as Advanced NFL Stats shows (HT: SB Nation), the win probability for the the Pats if they go for it in that situation is 79 percent. And if they don’t go for it and punt? 70 percent. Therefore, Belichick’s call, at least according to the odds, was the right one. Now, there is some exception here:

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30 percent chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Any way you slice it, it’s just a situation that shows you can play the odds in every situation at all times, and still come out on the wrong side of them; unless the odds are 100 percent on your side, there’s always a chance the results won’t be in your favor.

Just ask Shane Battier about that one.

As I watched Tom Brady’s ridiculous second quarter — an NFL record five TD passes! — live yesterday, I described it as if he was playing a game of Madden out there.

My roommate interjected: “A game of Madden against a baby.”

Yup, that about explains this:

People are in freakout mode right now because of Rodney Harrison’s comments last night about Tom Brady: “… if you’re listening, take off the skirt and put on some slacks. Toughen up.” Ouch. Burn. Boom. Etc., etc. Cue the video:

But here’s the thing: Harrison PLAYED WITH BRADY. They are friends. And, at least according to Dan Patrick on his radio show this morning, as soon as the 42 members of Sunday Night is Football Night in America Halftime Spectravaganza Show left the set, Brady and Harrison were texting each other about how humorous his line was.

Now, granted, there are lots of issues with the way that referees are calling games these days; I don’t think anyone wants Tom Brady just freewheelin’ around while everyone else on the field is forced to stare at him knowing that any sort of “tackling” or “rough-housing” will result in a 75-yard penalty and a $40 million fine.

At the same time, however, people also need to understand that Harrison is the prototypical type of “inflammatory” announcer, brought on for his ability to say things that will piss people off. Basically like the Gregg Doyel of NBC, and being heard by way more people. So, nation, please just ignore him when he says mean stuff about the Dreamboat — he’s either doing it purely out of jest or he’s trying to incite you into a riot. And if you respond, he’s going to win. And that’s no good for anyone.

No one with any semblance of brain matter floating around their skull would ever dare question the fact that Randy Moss is one of the most talented wideouts (even perhaps players) in the history of the NFL. It’s not an issue that’s up for debate.

However, anyone who watched Moss play with the Raiders knows that he can become a touch, ahem, lethargic when he’s not happy. But I watched Tom Brady stumble through a win against the Falcons on Sunday (at times overthrowing Moss) and even at one point thought, “But there’s no way he could ever become angry now, he’s got Tom Freaking Brady throwing him the ball.” Well, I might be wrong, judging by Mike Freeman’s latest column over at CBS Sports, which is quite a fascinating peek at Moss on-field behavior.

CBSSports.com charted every Moss play against the Falcons, and on a significant number of them, Moss either didn’t block or generated a lackluster blocking effort. On other plays, when the ball wasn’t going to him, Moss jogged some of his routes.

Now, this is certainly an interesting study in human behavior, but it doesn’t tell us much of anything new; a substantial portion of the human population tries harder at whatever they do when there’s more at stake. It’s the equivalent of someone starting to work their ass off when “the Bobs” come to town, while muddling through normal day activity.

What is interesting is the football strategy behind it. You see, the Falcons apparently recognized Moss’ tendencies ahead of time, and as Freeman mentioned later in his column, they would double him whenever he broke from the line with enthusiasm, and they would leave him in single coverage whenever he came off lethargically.

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“Entourage” was not good last season. Sure, it had some funny lines, and they partied and there were good-looking girls or whatever, but darn it, I want substance. I want riveting storylines. I don’t want ill-conceived plots that are wholly unbelievable. I am reminded of what Bill Simmons wrote shortly after the season ended. A shortish sample:

Well, the fifth season of “Entourage” wasn’t implausible at all: I can totally see Vince’s losing his career after one bad movie (so what if Colin Farrell has made 15 stinkers and keeps getting jobs?), becoming Hollywood poison, getting a job only because his agent passed up a $10-million-a-year studio head position to stay with him — you know, because agents have such great character — submarining an elaborate $120 million action movie that somehow came together in about 2.23 seconds because the director hated him (in the irony of ironies, because he didn’t think Vince, a guy played by Adrian Grenier, could act), hitting rock bottom and moving back to Queens, then climactically rebounding with the lead in Martin Scorsese’s new movie without ever auditioning for it, and while all of this was happening Jamie-Lynn Sigler fell in love with a jobless Turtle …

Nail on head. Anyway, the ratings were also a bit worse last season than they’ve been in the past.

But, I expect that to change when Tom Brady guest stars as himself next season in a celebrity golf outing (via First Cuts). Perhaps he’ll be in a foursome with Ari or something, and they’ll talk about Giselle, and then I bet there will be problems on the set with Vinny and then maybe E will have to do damage control.

Did I just disguise my disdain for the show last season into a sports blog post? I think I just did.

Playing Jeopardy on Playstation 3 is sort of dumb, because after you buzz in, they give you four answers via multiple choice. That’s not like real Jeopardy; that’s significantly easier.

Though, I suppose any game involving my character dying isn’t necessarily true to life, and that’s probably a good thing.

Anyway, here’s a particularly funny question omfr the actual show of “Jeopardy,” calling out Bill Belichick for storming off the field at the end of last year’s Super Bowl:

“Jeopardy” question writers, for the win.

Via the Jets Blog.

There are hits in the NFL, and then there are soul-releasing, back-bruising, release-the-furry-of-hell-spawn-of-the-Devil hits.

The above is a version of the latter. Wes Welker meet Ryan Clark.

Shortly after the play, Welker asked teammates why everyone was rushing out to California, and what happened to all the cars in the parking lot.