Since May 1, Derrek Lee 2009 has looked freakishly like Derrek Lee 2005. Sure, a couple months of baseball shouldn’t be compared to a full season, especially when those months are cherry picked. Still, Lee’s recent seven-RBI game took me back. His good play continued into the All-Star Break, lending a tinge of optimism to a frustrating first half.

Bob’s already talked about Milton Bradley’s possible return to form, and we all know Aramis Ramirez is back in the lineup. Even Alfonso Soriano has shown some small signs of improvement. All this could add up to a better second half. For now, let’s just reflect on DLee’s recent hitting.

Dude, I Remember You

In 2005, Lee put up a slash line of .335/.418/.662. Since May 1, Lee has gone .313/.390/.591. From June 2 to the break, his line was .312/.384/.610. As good as Derrek has been lately, it’s just two and a half months, and still not as gaudy as 2005. But there are other nice things going on, too.

Lee has hit some long home runs in 2009, and has stacked up some distance that we haven’t seen as much of in recent years. Slugging an amazing .738 but cooler otherwise for July, Lee has certainly been smacking homers recently.

Here’s the “standard distance” for Lee’s 2009 home runs, according to Hit Tracker. It’s the distance the ball would have traveled if things like the wind and the bleachers didn’t get in the way.

411    7/6
397    7/5
406    7/2
456    7/2
426    7/1
425    6/20
424    6/19
393    6/19
372    6/18
370    6/11
412    6/2
425    5/23
366    5/17
431    5/3
439    5/2
394    4/15

That’s 10 over 400 along with a few in the 390s. Some of those 400 footers were well beyond that mark, the longest over 450 feet. In 2008, Lee cracked the 400 barrier just eight times for the entire season. Same exact tally in 2007. So, with half a season remaining, he’s just almost 2/3 of the way to matching the total for the last two seasons combined.

This increase in long bombs is reflected in Lee’s average distance. 2007 and 2008 checked in at nearly identical 395.8 and 395.7, far short of 2009’s average standard distance of 409.2 feet. Ball go far, chicks dig the long ball, insert your own cliche. But it’s a good sign, that’s for sure.

The Rest of the Way

Fangraphs is handy in so many ways, and its array of data on Lee includes:

1. Lee’s WOBA is .370 - nothing to complain about, that’s for sure. But that’s just 10 points higher than 2008 and 20 points lower than 2007. For reference, in 2005 Lee posted his career high WOBA of .446
2. With improved power but little movement in WOBA, you’d expect something else is dragging that rate down. First, ISO shows Lee at .230 for the 2009 season, which is actually inline with his pre-2005 ISO. Lee’s walk rate looks pretty stable, but has sagged a point here and there over the years. So, it mostly comes down to less hits overall, with a higher percentage of home runs. I’m not sure that’s something that can last. His BABIP is 40 points below his career number, so expect more single and doubles, and fewer home runs, as the season moves on.
3. Fangraphs’ Speed Score for is sad, just 1.0, down from 4.4 last season. For a full season, Lee has never slipped below 2.5. A critical aspect of his game has dropped off rapidly, or so it appears. Could be misleading, just a half season.

While I’m happy with DLee’s play this summer, he is not the guy I’m looking to carry this team into August and September. His improved power is not something I expect to last all season (I hope I’m wrong) and his lack of speed and success on the base paths is disconcerting. But it’s Milton Bradley and Aramis Ramirez that I’ll be counting on.