Ryan to the Rescue?
It appears the Cubs are interested in former Blue Jays closer B.J. Ryan.. The good news is that it would let Sean Marshall move back into the rotation. The bad news is that it would put B.J. Ryan in the Cubs bullpen.
Ryan used to be a very good pitcher. In 2006 he posted a 1.36 ERA as the Blue Jays’ closer in 72.1 innings, saving 38 games and blowing just four. But Ryan hurt his arm and had Tommy John surgery, and he doesn’t seem to have recovered his velocity. In 2008 he posted a 2.95 ERA in spite of his velocity being a little bit down, but his strikeout numbers were way down and his walks were up.
This season, Ryan has been flat-out terrible. He’s struck out 13 and walked 17 in 20.2 innings. He’s got a 6.53 ERA, and his velocity is down even more. In fact, his fastball this season has averaged 87.3 MPH. Last season it was 88.9, and for his career it’s been 90.1. Perhaps because the fastball hasn’t been as good, he’s thrown 40% sliders this year, too, twice as many as in past seasons. That’s bad, because the fastball has always been a much better pitch for him than the slider. Fangraphs says that it’s been worth 1.36 runs over 100 pitches in his career, as opposed to .1 for the slider.
On the other hand, the Cubs aren’t looking for Ryan to be their closer, they’re looking for him to be their LOOGY. And as bad as he’s been, he has been better than the 7.70 FIP and 7.36 ERA the team got out of Neal Cotts earlier this year. And what’s more, Ryan’s numbers are pretty good against lefties, still. It’s a small sample, but in 45 PA this season, lefties hit .250/.378/.389 against him. Not great–that on-base number is awfully high. But it’s not nearly as bad as his overall numbers, either. And those numbers are pitching in the AL East. Pitching in the NL Central, where the left-handed bats are not nearly as good, will be a big help.
If the Cubs do take a flyer on Ryan, expect to see Sean Marshall start to get stretched out. I would imagine that Kevin Hart will make at least one more start before they replace him with Marshall. But the organization probably believes, rightly, that Marshall is the better choice for a rotation spot while Ryan Dempster is out. If Ryan lets the Cubs do that, he’s worth a try.


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