This season was supposed to be a cakewalk for the Cubs. They had by far the most talented roster in the NL Central, and they were poised to just walk away with the division. By now, nobody else was supposed to be within five games of them. That’s not how it’s worked out, but for the first time since April, the Cubs are alone in first place in the division.

If they win it, it will be somewhat close. They’re half a game up on the Cardinals, but have played five games less. The Cardinals roster is probably about as talented as the Cubs’, now. Rasmus is apparently the real thing, and Chris Carpenter is healthy. Plus, with Matt Holliday on their team, Saint Louis a lot more dangerous than they seemed at the start of the season.

But the way I see it, the Cubs and Cardinals are about evenly matched. Bradley and Soriano seem to finally be hitting. Aramis is figuring out how to hit with his bum shoulder. Even Fukudome is showing some progress. The Cubs offense can do some damage, and the pitching has been pretty good all season.

As the team goes into the trading deadline, I don’t know if they need much of anything. Maybe the most important thing is a left-hander from the pen. But even that may not be necessary. B.J. Ryan will pitch Tuesday for Iowa, and if he has anything left, the Cubs may have another LOOGY. At this point, it looks like that wouldn’t move Sean Marshall to the rotation, but rather to a sort of setup role. That would give the Cubs a pretty good top four guys in their bullpen: Gregg closing, Marmol (who may have found the strike zone) at setup, and Guzman and Marshall the next two guys. The back end of the bullpen is still a little scary, but having four good pitchers in your bullpen is enough to get the job done.

As far as position players go, the Cubs don’t need anything. Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley are all too expensive to just replace, and if they’re coming into their own right now you wouldn’t really want to, anyway. Nobody is seriously thinking Ramirez should be replaced. Theriot has shown a lot of improvement this season. Lee has been the biggest offensive force the team has.

The only two positions I would consider adding anyone at are second base or catcher, but even that isn’t necessary. Hill is an adequate backup at catcher, and assuming Soto can be back in the next couple of weeks, there’s no improvement necessary there–as disappointing as Soto’s season has been, he was improving nicely and if his average on balls in play improves (it stands at .263 right now) he’ll put up nice offensive numbers for a catcher. And at second base, even though Fontenot has been disappointing, he and Baker make for a decent platoon.

So going into the trade deadline and into the last two months of the season, the Cubs don’t really need to do anything to their roster. They have the talent to win the division, even though it’s could be close. The bigger impediment is the fact that the Cardinals have played five more games than the Cubs. But the Cubs have lost three fewer than the Cubs–basically, if the Cubs can play the Cardinals even over the course of the 61 games both teams have left to play, they just need to go 3-2 in their extra five to win the division. That’s certainly doable, and if the Cubs can, they’ll be back in the playoffs again.