Comparing The Cubs’ Young Arms

By Harry Pavlidis

There are six young arms in the Cubs organization that have found themselves spending time in the big leagues — often to the fans’ collective chagrin. All are right handed and all have question marks - either in terms of results, and/or familiarity.

  • Mitch Atkins - had a cup of coffee out of the bullpen, now back in Iowa
  • Justin Berg - finally got into a game during his second call-up
  • Esmailin Caridad - showed up just in time to relieve Tom Gorzelanny in Colorado
  • David Patton - the Rule 5 pick hurt his groin, ending up on a double rehab stint in Tennessee
  • Jeff Samardzija - famous college Wide Receiver was demoted after being pummeled by the Phillies
  • Jeff Stevens - part of the Mark DeRosa trade, has been on the shuttle a lot lately, thanks to injuries

Given their limited experience, we’re not exactly wallowing in the PITCHf/x here, but there’s enough to talk about their stuff. In some cases, we can talk about how good or bad that stuff has done against big league hitters. But we’ll start with their Triple-A stats.

Triple-A Career Stats

Rookie
2009 Age IP G GS ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Mitch Atkins 23 173.7 32 32 6.12 1.42 7.4 3.3 1.7
Justin Berg 25 136.7 57 16 4.54 1.45 5.0 4.7 0.9
Esmailin Caridad 25 125.7 23 23 4.15 1.41 7.5 3.2 1.1
David Patton 25 0.0 0 0 - - - - -
Jeff Samardzija 24 105.0 19 18 3.51 1.31 8.0 3.1 1.2
Jeff Stevens 25 74.0 51 0 2.92 1.14 10.9 4.4 0.5

That’s right, in case you forgot or hadn’t heard, David Patton had never pitched above High-A in his career. His “rehab” innings (like, what, 3?) at Tennessee are his only in Double-A. Berg and Stevens are both getting their work as relievers. Patton has also been a reliever for the most part. His “starts” in in Double-A are probably just part of the rehab plan, and not some kind of transition.

Looking at these numbers, each guy has some kind of issue. For Patton, it’s the lack of numbers. As you’ll see below, he’s not some kind of whiz kid that can skip levels. Remember, he’s 25 this year so he’s not the youngest in the group.

Stevens looks tough as a reliever, although the walk rate is a bit scary. Which brings me to Berg, who just does not look like much of a pitcher. Those rates, and the K:BB ratio that comes with them, are not good at all.

Atkins is just 23, so some of his struggles could be age-related. It’s not like he’s 21, but he’s got some time to mature. Caridad is probably my favorite of the group, subjectively. He looks pretty good, has a line better than Atkins and similar to Samardzija’s. Samardzija’s minor-league career has been alright. It’s in the show that he’s had problems.

Major League Career Stats

Rookie
2009 Age IP G GS ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Mitch Atkins 23 2.0 2 2 0.00 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0
Justin Berg 25 2.0 1 1 0.00 1.50 4.5 4.5 0.0
Esmailin Caridad 25 6.3 2 0 2.84 1.26 8.5 1.4 0.0
David Patton 25 24.0 17 0 5.62 1.67 7.5 5.6 1.5
Jeff Samardzija 24 55.3 43 1 5.04 1.63 6.8 4.4 0.8
Jeff Stevens 25 7.3 6 0 7.36 1.64 7.4 6.1 0.0

Some wide ranging sample sizes. From very small to minuscule. Enough for me to briefly bask in the warm light of confirmation bias. Esmailin Caridad, thank you for the good start to your career (I’ll over look the inherited runners who scored in your debut).

PITCHf/x Report

Let’s talk turkey. The stuff. What they throw. Or, in one case, what’s changed. First, some overall rates which will give you some context and some sample sizes that are meaningful. And some that are not.

rookie # Swing Whiff IWZ SLGCON GB%
Mitch Atkins 21 0.571 0.167 0.667 0.167 50%
Justin Berg 27 0.482 0.167 0.519 0.333 50%
Esmailin Caridad 89 0.449 0.225 0.584 0.667 28%
David Patton 408 0.395 0.211 0.556 0.521 55%
Jeff Samardzija 959 0.445 0.171 0.503 0.548 43%
Jeff Stevens 135 0.341 0.196 0.430 0.546 32%

Mitch Atkins has worked just two innings, but a lot of strikes. His stuff (see below) isn’t really special, so I’m not sure he makes it as a starter. On the other hand, he throws a slider that looks a bit like Randy Wells’ *.

Atkins has been a starter throughout his minor league career, but struggled in Triple-A. He’s won a lot of games at times, enough to be named the Cubs’ minor league pitcher of the year, but his numbers don’t stand out. He’s working on the sinker, or was working on it, but has probably set it aside.

pitch # MPH PFX_X PFX_Z
Curveball 3 75 8 -5
Fastball 6 90 -5 9
Cutter 1 91 -2 7
Slider 11 85 3 4

*Wells, another rookie pitcher, is not included in this group of young arms. He deserves to stand on his own.

Justin Berg is another two inning guy, and his basic line is a smidge worse than Atkins’. Berg had some mis-adventures in Winter ball, so I developed a healthy skepticsm about his prospects. He threw a lot of sinkers in his debut, which I like, so I’ll keep an open mind.

pitch # MPH PFX_X PFX_Z
Sinker 13 92 -7 4
Fastball 2 92 -4 5
Slider 12 84 0 4

Esmailin Caridad may not throw as hard as Samardzija, but he’s the best of the rest. While he doesn’t get a lot of movement on his fastball (or even the sinker), his slider has a bit of Marmol flavor, in terms of movement but not velocity.

pitch # MPH PFX_X PFX_Z
Change 1 81 -7 2
Sinker 24 93 -6 5
Fastball 43 94 -4 7
Slider 21 77 7 -2

David Patton throws a breaking pitch that I like, a curveball that he throws pretty hard, around slider speed. I’m not the only one who likes it, major league hitters do, too. But I don’t think it’s for the same reason.

Patton throws an OK fastball, but has struggled to find a third pitch. He’s tried a change-up and a two-seam fastball, but not a whole lot. He’s basically a two-pitch pitcher. I see the potential, but he doesn’t seem to be able to get the results.

The good news about Patton is that the Cubs have managed to keep him on the 25-man active roster or their disabled list all season as required by Rule 5. Once rosters open up to 40 in September, he can safely occupy a seat in the bullpen. I’ll bet on a trip to Winter ball and a half season (or more) n Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2010.

pitch # MPH PFX_X PFX_Z
Change 13 85 -8 4
Curveball 150 80 3 -5
Sinker 73 93 -6 6
Fastball 172 91 -4 8

Jeff Samardzija had a good year in the bullpen. In 2008, that is. He’s been roughed up in 2009 and had an utterly disastrous start against the defending World Champions.

Samardzija worked on his breaking ball during an earlier stint in Iowa, and it came back looking less like a slider and more like a crappy curveball. I’m not sure what his intentions are, but the results don’t look good.I’m not sure what to call it, but in the tables and charts below, the “new” breaking ball will be called a curveball, and the “old” a slider.

He’s not exactly known for having a good off-speed pitch, whether it be the occasional change-up or the more frequent splitter. His most impressive pitch would probably be his fastball, which can reach 97 mph and usually has very good movement. Without a quality secondary pitch, quality hitters can sit on and handle pretty much any fastball.

pitch # MPH PFX_X PFX_Z
Change 4 87 -5 9
Curveball 70 81 0 -2
Sinker 201 95 -10 7
Fastball 445 95 -8 8
Splitter 176 86 -6 5
Slider 62 83 -1 2

Jeff Stevens has trouble finding the zone, as his walk rates indicated. He also looks to be a fly ball pitcher. Walks and fly balls are note a great combination. Stevens became a Cub when Mark DeRosa was shipped to Cleveland. He’s the first of the three prospects acquired to make it to the majors.

Stevens throws a nice looking curveball, but his aforementioned control issues are most evident with the breaking pitch. When you only have two pitches, and one is a pretty straight fastball, that’s particularly bad. He’s not one who can afford to have a waste pitch in his repertoire.

pitch # MPH PFX_X PFX_Z
Curveball 39 73 3 -10
Fastball 96 92 -3 9

That’s All Folks

We’ll see who gets innings this September, and who goes where this Winter. Bonus baby Samardzija should get some time in Latin America to work on his alleged breaking ball.

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