Preparing for 2010 - Catcher
There’s not much point in recapping the last few days’ games or talking about upcoming opponents — 10.5 games out in the division and six games out in the wild card, the Cubs don’t need to worry much about this season. At some point we probably do need to look at what went wrong with this season, but to do that it would be helpful to see where the team ends up, first.
But what we can do is look at what the team needs to do going into 2010. Of course a lot of the media are going to say “get rid of Milton Bradley,” as though that will solve anything. But if what Bradley says to the media makes other players on the team play worse, I want those players off the team, too.
So, over my next several posts here, I’m going to take a look at what the Cubs should do with some of their positions. I’ll start with one of the most disappointing, catcher.
Geovany Soto has been at least partially benched in favor of Koyie Hill. But Piniella has said that he wants Soto to start next season. So this benching seems to be less of a permanent thing and more of a way to just get him out of the lineup while he’s struggling.
It’s not really clear what’s wrong with Soto. Part of it is simply bad luck - he’s hitting .245 on balls in play. That’s well below his career numbers and what we could reasonably expect, and it isn’t explained by a drop in line drive percentage or an increase in ground balls. He is hitting fewer home runs on fly balls than last year, but not so much so that it explains much of his drop in production.
Encouragingly, Soto is actually walking more this season, which suggests to me that in his second full season, his skills might actually be improving a little bit. That seems odd to say, but he’s walking .65 times for every strikeout this year, after walking .51 times for every strikeout last year.
Still, there are questions about both Soto’s conditioning and just the general state of his body - at various times this year he’s had to battle through wrist and shoulder injuries, plus the time he spent on the DL this year. The Cubs are in a better position than we are, of course, to assess those things. If Soto has a lingering wrist or shoulder injury that explains the problems, and it’s not going to get better, then maybe the team needs to look elsewhere next season.
But if a lot of Soto’s fall this season is, as it appears to be, due to luck, then the Cubs should probably hang on to him. He’s dirt cheap, and even as bad as he’s been this season, he’s still been worth almost a win above replacement - well more than the team is paying him for. The Cubs can reasonably expect him to rebound some, and even if he never puts up superstar numbers, he ought to provide them with value at the catcher position for another few years, letting them spend their money to improve elsewhere.


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