Preparing for 2010 - Third Base

By Bob Romashko

This is by far the easiest 2010 post. Of all the players on the Cubs, Aramis Ramirez is the one about who I have the least questions. In spite of missing time and playing through pain, he’s putting up a .321/.383/.520 line, his contract is reasonable, and I wouldn’t consider trading him, switching his position, or anything else. His wOBA this season is .389, which is basically exactly in line with his offense in each of the last six seasons, so I don’t see a decline due to age here. Yes, the injury sucked, but it was a trauma injury, not the sort of thing like, say, knee pain, that you become more susceptible to as you age. Ramirez’s doctors have apparently told him he doesn’t need surgery on the shoulder, and I see no reason to think the injury is likely to recur if they don’t think he needs surgery.

That doesn’t mean the Cubs don’t need to think about third base, though. The team went in to 2009 without a solid backup plan if Ramirez got hurt, and as it turned out, he missed significant time and the team got burned because of it. I wouldn’t blame the team’s failure this season on the lack of a backup third baseman - they managed to get back into first place after Ramirez came back, even if temporarily, and the number of wins they lost because of his absence is not enough to make up the deficit with the Cards.

So, who can back up Ramirez? Well, if the Cubs go after Chone Figgins, he’s certainly an option. I’ve detailed that I worry about signing him to play second. I have fewer worries about him playing third base, though - if Ramirez got hurt with Figgins as the team’s every day second baseman, Figgins would probably move to third, where he owns a career UZR/150 of 6.9, which makes him worth almost a full win a season over Ramirez’s -1.3 at the position. My reservations about a Figgins signing aside, if he were on the team it would probably be easier to deal with an injury to Ramirez.

Jeff Baker is another option, and of course he’s already on the team. His UZR numbers aren’t pretty, so he may not be a good option at third. But those UZR numbers are over a very, very small sample, and as a competent second baseman he probably has the necessary athleticism to move to third, assuming his arm can handle it. Still, the danger with Baker is that the Cubs could run into the same problem they did with Fontenot this year - that he starts out as a bad third baseman and while he learns the position his hitting is affected. Plus, Baker would be exposed if he had to play every day and face a lot of right-handed pitching.

A third option would be Jake Fox. Fox has been really bad defensively in limited time at third base, and his reputation suggests that more of the same is in order. But he’s also been a decent offensive player.

The odds are that none of these players will have to worry about being the primary backup at third. I can’t imagine Jim Hendry will make the same mistake again, and I expect a free-agent utility player who has played more third base will be brought in in the offseason. But assuming no free agent is brought in to back up third base next year, it’s interesting to think about what a sort of platoon of Fox and Baker might look like at third. They’re both right-handed, so it wouldn’t be a traditional platoon. But I wonder if you could leverage their talents in such a way as to make the whole greater than the sum of its parts - use Fox when you have a fly ball or strikeout pitcher on the mound, and use Baker when you have a pitcher who relies more on his defense. Give Baker the bulk of at bats against lefties, and use Fox more against tough righties who would give Baker fits.

Regardless, third base is the least of the Cubs’ problems. We’ve been talking backups because I don’t think this is a position where the Cubs could or would attempt to get better by messing around with the starter.

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