There are six young arms in the Cubs organization that have found themselves spending time in the big leagues — often to the fans’ collective chagrin. All are right handed and all have question marks - either in terms of results, and/or familiarity.

• Mitch Atkins - had a cup of coffee out of the bullpen, now back in Iowa
• Justin Berg - finally got into a game during his second call-up
• Esmailin Caridad - showed up just in time to relieve Tom Gorzelanny in Colorado
• David Patton - the Rule 5 pick hurt his groin, ending up on a double rehab stint in Tennessee
• Jeff Samardzija - famous college Wide Receiver was demoted after being pummeled by the Phillies
• Jeff Stevens - part of the Mark DeRosa trade, has been on the shuttle a lot lately, thanks to injuries

Given their limited experience, we’re not exactly wallowing in the PITCHf/x here, but there’s enough to talk about their stuff. In some cases, we can talk about how good or bad that stuff has done against big league hitters. But we’ll start with their Triple-A stats.

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Trader Jim Hendry found a pair of left-handed pitchers before the non-waiver trade deadline. Since his quota of trades with Baltimore was filled, Hendry called upon another favorite partner, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio and Josh Harrison were sent to the Pirates for John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny.

Grabow has already showed his stuff in relief, and, on Tuesday night, Gorzelanny got his chance as a starter. Gorzelanny last pitched in the majors in June, but that was out of the bullpen. Pittsburgh stashed Gorzelanny in Triple-A most of the Summer, where he was impressive working in the Indianapolis rotation.

The Question Mark

The anticipation of Gorzelanny’s debut included questions about his velocity. After checking out his PITCHf/x right after the trade, I found his fastball was touching 95 out of the bullpen. That’s not the same as doing that as a starter, but it was a good sign.

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If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a millions times: Alfonso Soriano will get himself out swinging at pitches low and away.

Thing is, when Soriano is hot, he can do something with that pitch. So it might be really hard to get him to stop swinging there. Let’s all get used to it, and take a look at how well (or not well) Sori does with the tempting fruit found at his knees across the plate.

For the purposes of this post, I’m defining “low and away” as anything below the middle of Soriano’s strike zone and about one ball’s width out across the plate or more. You can slice and dice the zone, create nice heat maps, so this is just one way of looking at this questions.

Since I’m selecting a small region of the hitting area, I decided to group the data by month. Sure, kind of arbitrary, but let’s roll with it.

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Despite a tumultuous season, the 2009 Chicago Cubs find themselves holding a half game lead as play ends on July 26. I’m of two minds on the subject. Here’s an airing of both.

It’s good to be in first place

Especially if you’re still two games down in the Wild Card

The team has been built on solid pitching, especially of the starting variety

The most reliable starter is on the disabled list for the next several weeks

While Ted Lilly has arrived on the DL, Ryan Dempster is coming off

Unless it happens Monday against, the Astros, we won’t see Justin Berg’s debut as a result

Wait, that was two good things in a row (sorry, Justin)

Alfonso Soriano has adjusted to the sixth spot in the line-up

He’s great when hot, his next cold streak may arrive down the stretch

Milton Bradley is hitting better, sometimes

Still far below expectations, much to Steve Stone’s enjoyment

The Cubs could acquire Chris Snyder from Arizona

Maybe that means Geovany Soto’s rehab is progressing slowly

Koyie Hill wouldn’t have to play every day

Jake Fox or Micah Hoffpauir could lose their roster spot right away

OK, Hoffpauir would not be a big loss, but I’d hate to see Fox lose his job

So would Lou, considering the health of DLee’s neck

Right, Fox did start, not Hoffpauir, against the right-handed Micah Owings.

I’ll end on a positive note. Get healthy, Cubs, and keep hitting.

In a recent post at Beyond the Box Score, I introduced a new way to measure deception by a pitcher. Simply put, how often do hitters take called strikes in each count, as compared to the league average. After a little bit of simple math, I get a number that is a reasonable estimate of how good a pitcher is at tricking a hitter into thinking a pitch is a ball.

It doesn’t distinguish movement, delivery or any other factor that really gets at the source of the deception. Except control. Based on a suggestion or two, I’ve factored out the expected impact of the pitcher’s ability to throw strikes.

The stat I created is Called Strikes per Takes Above Average, or CSpTAA. The best CSpTAA, belonging to Tampa’s J.P Howell, is .378. Sean White has the worst, -.232. 0 would be, by definition, average. These leaders are shown in the updated version of the leaderboard at BtBS, which can be found within the comments there.

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Since May 1, Derrek Lee 2009 has looked freakishly like Derrek Lee 2005. Sure, a couple months of baseball shouldn’t be compared to a full season, especially when those months are cherry picked. Still, Lee’s recent seven-RBI game took me back. His good play continued into the All-Star Break, lending a tinge of optimism to a frustrating first half.

Bob’s already talked about Milton Bradley’s possible return to form, and we all know Aramis Ramirez is back in the lineup. Even Alfonso Soriano has shown some small signs of improvement. All this could add up to a better second half. For now, let’s just reflect on DLee’s recent hitting.

Dude, I Remember You

In 2005, Lee put up a slash line of .335/.418/.662. Since May 1, Lee has gone .313/.390/.591. From June 2 to the break, his line was .312/.384/.610. As good as Derrek has been lately, it’s just two and a half months, and still not as gaudy as 2005. But there are other nice things going on, too.

Lee has hit some long home runs in 2009, and has stacked up some distance that we haven’t seen as much of in recent years. Slugging an amazing .738 but cooler otherwise for July, Lee has certainly been smacking homers recently.

Here’s the “standard distance” for Lee’s 2009 home runs, according to Hit Tracker. It’s the distance the ball would have traveled if things like the wind and the bleachers didn’t get in the way.

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Another edition of one of the oldest and best sports rivalries is set to go this weekend. The Cubs will host the Cardinals for four games over three days. How can we remind the Cubs of the importance of this game, given the standings and being the last series before the All-Star Break? I have a few ideas.

1. Host the Cardinals like Tiger Woods hosts a golf tournament. Woods hosted the AT&T Something Or Another in D.C. over the 4th of July weekend. After four rounds, Woods came out on top, and not just in the tournament. TIger found himself back on top of the PGA Tour money list and FedEx Cup points list. Perhaps the Cubs can find themselves above the Cardinals in the standings when the second game on Sunday draws to a close. Yes, the Cubs and Cards will play 36 holes on Sunday.
2. Play like it’s the last two minutes of the first half of a basketball game. Tighten up the defense and go on a quick run. Cut that deficit, or eliminate it, before half-time. Make sure your best shooters are on the court (Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, Randy Wells and Carlos Zambrano will get the starts) and make sure you remember how many fouls you can give, how many time-outs you can take and keep an eye on the shot clock. I’m looking at you, Milton Bradley.
3. It’s almost half-time and you haven’t been able to throw or run the ball at all. Before going into the locker room and tweaking the game plan, try not to get anyone hurt and don’t commit any turnovers. Football’s just a game, but baseball is life. So relax a little and pretend it’s a game. Just make sure you win.
4. Is this car fast enough to win? A few more qualifying laps to go, and being at the pole doesn’t mean you have the best car. And falling short doesn’t mean you don’t, either. But we should see what this sucker’s got in it before our last shot at replacing some parts.
5. If nothing is done about these maple brooms, someone will die while curling. Then what?
6. I respect hockey too much to make up a bad metaphor. I will point out this Cubs organ-I-zation is badly in need of improved Oh-fense. And more beards, less teeth.
7. Bird hunting is a noble sport. Enjoy.

Jeff Samardzija is back with the Chicago Cubs, and back in the bullpen. After nothing but starts since his demotion in May, the now stretched-out righty will be working middle-ish relief for the big club.

While in Iowa, Samardzija handled the Pacific Coast League without much difficulty, but it wasn’t about the numbers. The Cubs sent Samardzija down, essentially to improve on his secondary pitches. The result is a curveball that had been shelved in favor of a slider. The split-fingered fastball remains in the repertoire, along with the two-seam fastball. Samardzija does throw a four-seam heater, but it’s the moving two-seamer (more tail than sink) that regularly reaches the upper 90s that has been the main ingredient of Samardzija’s success — limited as that may be.

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In a somewhat surprising turn of events, the Cubs won a game on Friday. It was exciting, thanks to some good hitting by both teams and some lousy pitching by Carlos Marmol. What most people will remember about the game won’t be the score, or the wild Marmol, or Geo420’s home run. Not even the (mostly) quality pitching of Randy Wells and Jose Contreras. It will be the shot fired across Milton Bradley’s bow.

After another poor at bat, Bradley reportedly blew up in the dugout before being sent to the clubhouse by Lou Piniella. Lou didn’t just dismiss Bradley, he had some very angry words for him. Bradley was seen leaving the parking lot before the game ended. Lou sent him home.

Is the End or the Beginning?

Bradley’s reputation for getting angry with himself for failing seems to be a realistic assessment. His outbursts have come in the midst of several others by the Cubs in 2009, including Big Z’s epic meltdown.

While the whole lot of them have worn Lou out, he snapped on Bradley today. Milton has done enough strange stuff to drive a manager crazy, and I’m just about done supporting the guy. Not done yet, but I’m getting close.

I’m gradually allowing myself to consume and speculate on innuendo about Bradley. Frankly, I’m surprised his first few months have been so eventful. A lot of folks saw this coming. While I’m still not convinced he’s a bad guy, I’m starting to realize he’s not a good guy. If his outbursts have reached the point of being sent home by a manager who has been rather placid lately, well, I think that speaks for itself.

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One pick has already declined the Cubs offer, but at least 19 have already signed a contract. The other 30 are pending or unknown, as of this writing.

Here’s an update on 26 of the Cubs’ 50 picks, including all of the top 15 and 18 and of the top 20.

1 Brett Jackson, CF
Signed

The Chicago Cubs have agreed to terms with outfielder Brett Jackson, the club’s first-round selection (31st overall) in the 2009 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, pending a physical.

source

I see a guy with pretty good upside, Wilken said. He’s got pretty good power in his bat, a very live bat, but he’s got to do some things. He has to soften his approach, but if he can do that the contact can be more consistent. He’s a true center fielder with average plus arm. He’s got a chance to be a complete player.

source

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