I was reading David Haugh talking about the Bears this morning, and I was struck by a contrast between baseball coverage and football coverage. Haugh points out that the Bears don’t need Devin Hester to be a No. 1 receiver, because if he can just be a good player they can do well without him being a star.

Somehow there are people out there who seem to be unwilling to extend the same logic to baseball. Obviously you need players for different roles, just like you do in football. Olin Kreutz is not going to be able to step in at wide receiver for the Bears any more than Derrek Lee is going to take a turn in center field for the Cubs. But Haugh’s point is that whether the Bears call Devin Hester a No. 1 receiver or not, if he produces well that’s all that really matters, not whether he produces “like a number one.”

There’s no reason the same logic shouldn’t apply to baseball. If you have a strong rotation one through five, you don’t really need a Cy Young award winner up front. Yet I see people bemoan the Cubs’ lack of an “ace,” particularly in regard to whether Carlos Zambrano is or isn’t worthy of that title. See for example here, where the writer declares Zambrano not to be an ace and then lists a set of requirements that nobody he thinks of as an ace probably actually possesses. Let’s put aside whether Zambrano is an ace, though, and just assume for the sake of argument he isn’t — he’s just a good but flawed pitcher.

But who cares whether you have an ace? Or for that matter, whether you have a superstar on your team? The Cubs are a team that’s been built without superstars. Those of us who are statistically-minded know that, when playing to their true talent, most of the Cubs players are worth about two to four wins above replacement, apiece. There’s no player on the team who is Albert Pujols-caliber (actually, there isn’t really another player in the league who’s that caliber). But the idea behind how the Cubs are built is that, if everything goes right, there aren’t any weaknesses in the lineup, either.

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I know commenting on a Steve Rosenbloom post is a terrible idea. Actually reading the post is a torturous experience, and then you’re forced to link to the post so your readers know what you’re talking about, and in the end that’s playing exactly into his hands, since he’s deliberately posting to get a reaction and spur page views.

But I’m weak, and I can’t resist playing the game. Rosenbloom took on Carlos Zambrano today in a post titled “Z gets an F, but he’s not alone in this embarrassment.” Don’t click that link. Trust me when I say you’ll regret it.

Used to be, Carnage Zambrano had cramping problems because he was too dumb or stubborn to take a drink.

Now the Cubs’ pitcher with back problems apparently couldn’t be troubled to do sit-ups.

Congratulations on hitting 11 on the Stupid-O-Meter.

Zambrano said he doesn’t like to work out his core and admitted he’s lazy, so apparently $19 million a year can’t buy commitment.

“Carnage” Zambrano? Seriously? Alright, I guess. I’m not sure if he’s a bright red comic book villain or a death metal band, but actually that seems like a pretty intimidating nickname. I mean, if I was a professional pitcher in baseball and opposing hitters thought of me as “Carnage” I’d feel pretty awesome about myself. So this seems like a bad way to insult the guy, but what do I know?

The “lazy” part, though, of course, is not exactly what Zambrano said. What he said was: “My problem is I’ve been lazy. There are things in life you don’t like to do, but you have to do them. I don’t like abs, but I have to do them. I have to start doing them every day and be serious about it.”

He also said: “I’m a big guy and I work hard every day, [but] one of the things I don’t like to do is my abs, my core work. If I do abs every day and keep doing my job and be serious about my abs, I’ll be OK.”

Look, if he hasn’t been doing ab exercises that he was told to do, that’s dumb, and if that contributed to his DL stint, he hurt the team by being dumb. That’s great. But I’m pretty sure Z is not, in general, lazy. This is the guy who pulled his hamstring running out a bunt hit. The same one who kills the ball at BP. The guy who hurries over to cover first all the time. The power-hitting, switch-hitting pitcher.

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Over at Goat Riders of the Apocalypse, ajwalsh wrote a couple of days ago about how the Cubs’ window is closing. Even if the Cubs don’t win a thing this year, I don’t think the concept of a “window” really applies to this team.

The Cubs payroll presently stands at $138 million, according to Cot’s MLB Contracts’ spreadsheet. Most of this year’s team is going to be back next year; Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and Rich Harden are the only main contributors on this team that aren’t under club control for next season. A few players become arbitration-eligible and their price tags will go up, but right now the Cubs are obligated to pay out $120 million next season. They could conceivably sign a couple of pieces in free agency if they need to without increasing their payroll from this year, or even decreasing it slightly.

Pretty much everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for this year’s team. Harden has been lousy. Dempster has a broken toe and is out a month. Zambrano went on the disabled list. Aramis Ramirez was on the disabled list for a long time. Bradley, Soriano, and Fontenot have all been very bad. Lee looked washed up for a month before he started hitting. Soto fell off a cliff and then when he started to come around, got hurt. And in spite of all of those things, the team is a little bit over .500 and competing for a bad division.

I suppose the question one needs to ask is, is what happened to all these players representative of their talent levels as they age, or is it a fluke? For Bradley, Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez, the answer is probably a little of both. They’re all getting older and are going to miss time and their skills will decline. But the declines we’ve seen from Bradley and Soriano strike me as fluky. Both of them will finish with disappointing numbers on the season, and everyone will revise their expectations next season down somewhat as a result. But Bradley will be 32 next season and Soriano will be 34. Neither’s career is over just yet. They won’t necessarily be as good as they have been in their careers, but they probably won’t be as bad as they have been, either.

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Yesterday’s win over the Indians marked the first of three games the Cubs will play in three different cities. (It’s also their first win that wasn’t of the walk-off variety in a while; since you can’t win road games in walk-off fashion, hopefully we’ll see some more like yesterday.) After the game the team flew to Atlanta, and then it’s back north to Detroit for the start of their interleague series against the Tigers.

Today, Ryan Dempster is scheduled to go against Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has been great for the Braves, posting a 3.41 ERA, but with only a 4-6 record to show for it. The Braves dropped their last two against the Red Sox, and are now 32-36. They’re two games under .500 both at home and on the road, so hopefully the Cubs can take advantage of them at home and come away with a win.

The Tigers are another story. They’re 38-31 and lead off the series with two very good pitchers in Edwin Jackson (2.39 ERA) and Rick Porcello (3.54 ERA). The good news is that Carlos Zambrano is on the mound against Jackson, and Rich Harden will go against Porcello. Harden has struggled this year, but Comerica Park is a bad place to hit home runs, and that’s a big part of Harden’s problem. Detroit is a very tough team to beat at home, where they’re 20-11. If the Cubs are going to break through against them, it might be in the final game of the series, Thursday, when the pitching matchup actually favors the Cubs, with Ted Lilly facing off against Armando Galarraga.

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Harry already talked some about Zambrano’s 100th victory. But I think whenever a Cubs pitcher wins his 100th game with the team, it’s alright if we talk about it two days in a row. So I went ahead and put together a list of the five best games Z has pitched in his career. They’re listed below in ascending order:

5) May 31, 2005 - Big Z goes eight innings against the Dodgers, gives up one hit, strikes out nine and gets a no-decision in a game the Cubs would win 2-1 in ten innings. Zambrano gave up one run, but it was unearned. Ex-Cub Hee-Seop Choi reached base on a passed ball, then scored when future-Cub Cesar Izturis singled and Corey Patterson made an error. Zambrano was so good in this game that umpire Ed Rapuano told Dusty Baker “he pitched a heck of a game” when Dusty took Z out between innings.

4) June 5, 2006 - For his hothead reputation, Zambrano was awfully calm about the prospect of pitching a no-hitter. He took one into the eighth, and told Larry Rothschild in the dugout, “”Whatever happens in this inning, will happen. If somebody gets a base hit, it’s OK. I pitched a good game anyway and I didn’t let the other team score any runs.” Preston Wilson broke up the no-hit bid after 7.1 innings, leaving Zambrano with a one-hit, two-walk, eight-strikeout performance. Z singlehandedly outhit the Astros, too, with a three-run jack and an RBI-flyout.

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Carlos Zambrano has joined an exclusive club of Cubs’ pitchers. 20 men have gone before him, and just three since 1960.

Carlos joins Greg Maddux, Fergie Jenkins and Rick Reuschel in the “during my lifetime” 100 Wins as a Cub Club.  Fergie and Maddog have 31s draped from the foul polls, and it’s just a matter of time before Maddux joins Jenkins in Cooperstown. Rick Reuschel, well, he’s Mr. Underrated.  More on that after the jump. First, the 100 game winners in Cubs franchise history.

source

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The Cubs went through quite a bit in May. Milton Bradley served his suspension, and Carlos Zambrano started his. Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ryan Freel, Aaron Miles, Aramis Ramirez and Chad Fox all hit the disabled list.

Zambrano came back briefly, as alluded to above. Harden is due back soon, but Ramirez is out until July.  Miles and Freel are somewhere in between.

Freel was acquired, Jeff Samardzija demoted, Joey Gathright traded, while Randy Wells and Jose Ascanio were promoted.

Jake replaced Chad in the Fox role, and Andres Blanco got his glove into the game.

Jason Waddell took Neal Cotts’ spot - for now - but the pitching roles, particularly Sean Marshall’s, will change over the next few days.

Bobby Scales made his debut, stuck around, got demoted.  He was recalled before even a day went by, when Freel injured his hamstring.

Take a look at the rosters on the first of May and the first of June.

*suspended as of June 1

Only 18 spots, counting Zambrano’s, have come up the same at both points in time.  Some guys will come back soon, and June could be just as dizzying as May. Unless they start winning consistently.

MOUTHPIECESPORTS.COM personality and Chicago Cubs correspondent Sarah Spain will be blogging from the press box at Wrigley Field all season long. CUBS 101: Sarah Spain’s Wrigley Ramblings, will keep fans up-to-date on Lou’s Crew as they try to go all the way 101 short years after their last World Series win.

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12:27pm - Lots of moves made today by the Cubs. Bobby Scales and Neal Cotts have been sent back down and Aaron Miles has been placed on the DL with a lingering shoulder injury. Those guys make room for hot-hitting Jake Fox, infielder Andres Blanco and lefty reliever Jason Waddell. Blanco will get the start at second base today, while Waddell and Fox will be available off the bench. Fans have been itching to see Fox get a shot in the bigs, but his questionable fielding skills had delayed his call-up. Looks like Lou’s just about had enough of the club’s slumping bats and he’s ready to see what Fox can add to the line-up. Fox’s numbers in the Pacific League are literally mind-blowing: 40 R, 17 HR, 50 RBIs, .423 AVG, .503 OBP, .886 SLG. Fox leads the league in average, home runs and RBI.

12:33pm - In honor of Jake’s arrival, today will be the “Foxy Edition” of CUBS 101. Each time a Pirates batter strikes out everyone’s favorite bad girl, Megan Fox, will appear. ‘Cause let’s be honest–ain’t a one of you out there that wouldn’t strike out with her.

Each time the Cubs get a run, my other favorite Fox will pop up.

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Ground balls are valuable. They’re not* likely to result in hits, particularly of the extra base variety. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, they are even more valuable - an extreme ground ball pitcher can survive any type of weather.

*corrected

Since I’m playing around with some PITCHf/x data, I figured I’d share some stats on the Cubs’ ground ball pitching tendencies. This is sorted by the ground ball rate (grounders divided by pitches). I also included the rate of hits on ground balls - better known as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for grounders. The bottom rows give you the team totals and the league totals for 2009.

The Cubs’ GB/pitch rate is lower than league average. What this doesn’t factor in is the rate of whiffs, fouls and takes. If you miss a lot of bats, or throw a lot of balls, all the other rates (including ground ball) will be artificially lowered. But we’ll roll with it - for now.

The BABIP shows the Cubs have been a little bit unlucky on ground balls. And/or the infield defense isn’t as efficient as other teams’. In any case, we’re only talking about six weeks of data, so take your grain of salt.

Notes on the pitchers:

• Wells and Patton are getting a good amount of ground balls. Wells has been unlucky on his, while Patton has been on the lucky side. That’s a good sign for Wells, who may stick around with the Cubs for a while. So will Patton, though.
• Marshall has the highest GB/P of the starters (Wells excluded). Zambrano and Dempster are ground ball pitchers, but their rates take a hit since they both miss a lot of bats. Dempster in particular is a whiff machine. Zambrano misses the zone a lot, too.
• Cotts has bad luck, but a good GB/P rate. That’s from a guy who really can’t throw strikes.
• It makes me a little nervous that the late inning guys appear to be fly ball pitchers. Marmol misses bats more than enough, so I hope my next pass, which includes other batted ball types, paints a prettier picture.

Just to be clear, I’m not introducing a new stat here, it is too flawed for repeat usage. Still, it’s a decent barometer on a important aspect of pitching.

The Cubs wrap-up a successful week on Sunday with the final game of a rain-shortened series against the Astros. After a week of changes, the Cubs had a week of better baseball. Starting with some updates from the Junior Circuit, here are few things from this week that stuck-out.

Alumni Report

I’d say “Orioles Week in Review”, since it means the same thing, but that would be inappropriate. Felix Pie still can’t hit, but Rich Hill may have remembered how to pitch. His fastball looks to be a little slower than the good old days, but his control is most of the way back.

The Royals were Hill’s first foe of the year, and they really didn’t look like much of a test the first time through the order. When they turned it over, following a nine-pitch third by the lefty from Massachusetts, they started getting better hacks.

Still, it was a solid outing for Hill, who worked into the sixth inning and got the win. Quite impressive, considering his last pitch as a Cub was a 55-foot fastball, and his minor league and Winter ball performances were awful.

Things Look Familiar—Minus One Key Piece

The Cubs are on about the same pace as 2008, but will be without Aramis Ramirez for eight weeks, I’d guesstimate.

2009
21-14 (May 16)
2nd place, 0.5 GB

2008
20-15 (May 9)
2nd place, 1.0 GB

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