Posts Tagged David Patton

August 15th, 2009

Comparing The Cubs’ Young Arms

By Harry Pavlidis

There are six young arms in the Cubs organization that have found themselves spending time in the big leagues — often to the fans’ collective chagrin. All are right handed and all have question marks - either in terms of results, and/or familiarity.

  • Mitch Atkins - had a cup of coffee out of the bullpen, now back in Iowa
  • Justin Berg - finally got into a game during his second call-up
  • Esmailin Caridad - showed up just in time to relieve Tom Gorzelanny in Colorado
  • David Patton - the Rule 5 pick hurt his groin, ending up on a double rehab stint in Tennessee
  • Jeff Samardzija - famous college Wide Receiver was demoted after being pummeled by the Phillies
  • Jeff Stevens - part of the Mark DeRosa trade, has been on the shuttle a lot lately, thanks to injuries

Given their limited experience, we’re not exactly wallowing in the PITCHf/x here, but there’s enough to talk about their stuff. In some cases, we can talk about how good or bad that stuff has done against big league hitters. But we’ll start with their Triple-A stats.

Keep reading →

May 29th, 2009

Challenging Conventional Wisdom on the 2009 Cubs

By Harry Pavlidis

I think a lot of folks may be coming around on some of these points, but there are a few things about the Cubs that I’d like to talk a little about.  My perception of the prevailing attitude, or conventional wisdom, may not be yours.  So my statements may be straw man arguments for you.

Milton Bradley is awesome. A bunt single to start a rally?  Thank you very much.  An uncanny awareness of the strike zone?  Maybe a little less of that could be in order, sure, but his zone judgment is phenomenal.  He plays the game with a 17 inch plate. Umpires are rated on a 21 inch plate. The league seems to play with a 24 inch plate. Respect Milton’s eye, it’s as good as any in the game since Barry Bonds.

Bradley he plays as hard as he can all the time, and wants to win, win and win. He also shows something a lot of folks lack - maturity. He owns up to his mistakes instead of offering faux-apologies. He’s showing a self-awareness he lacked as a younger man. Join the club, Milt.

David Patton was a good pick-up. Considering he’s made the jump from A-ball, even the limited success he’s had is impressive in that context. His breaking ball is impressive, but he needs to be more consistent with his fastball.  He’s got a long way to go, and when he shakes off a sign, I cringe. But he’s got a good looking short-arm delivery and could be a valuable bullpen member in the future. Ride the Rule 5 wave a while longer, folks.

Lou Piniella is in control of this team. The cry for him to lock down on his out of control players is silly. Ted Lilly has a long track record of being a hothead, shocker. Gatorade machines were made to be beat to a pulp. The out of control Cubs, led by Milton Bradley, is a figment of the media’s imagination. Big Z did lose his mind for a few minutes, though. That’s no one’s fault other than his own.

The Cubs do not need Mark DeRosa. Please, he was no one’s savior, and, for once, the Cubs traded someone when he had some value. The pitchers they got from Cleveland aren’t sure things, but they may not be far off from the Majors.

Kevin Gregg is more than adequate at closer. It’s hard for me to get revved about closers. He’s pitched well in a key role, and is far less scary than former fan favorites Joe Borowski and Rod Beck. RIP Shooter, my heart rate found new highs during your time as a Cub, but it was fun. Cut Gregg some slack. He may not have the blue collar panache of Joe and Rod, but he’s got the goggles and good enough stuff to close games.

That’s all, back to baseball….

May 19th, 2009

Cubs Pitching Staff: Ground Ball Tendencies

By Harry Pavlidis

Ground balls are valuable. They’re not* likely to result in hits, particularly of the extra base variety. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, they are even more valuable - an extreme ground ball pitcher can survive any type of weather.

*corrected

Since I’m playing around with some PITCHf/x data, I figured I’d share some stats on the Cubs’ ground ball pitching tendencies. This is sorted by the ground ball rate (grounders divided by pitches). I also included the rate of hits on ground balls - better known as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for grounders. The bottom rows give you the team totals and the league totals for 2009.

Pitcher Pitches GB GBH GB/P H/GB
Luis Vizcaino 51 6 0 11.8% 0.000
Randy Wells 181 19 7 10.5% 0.368
David Patton 219 22 5 10.0% 0.227
Sean Marshall 497 49 10 9.9% 0.204
Neal Cotts 167 15 6 9.0% 0.400
Carlos Zambrano 619 50 10 8.1% 0.200
Ryan Dempster 803 64 15 8.0% 0.234
Angel Guzman 292 23 3 7.9% 0.130
Jeff Samardzija 74 5 3 6.8% 0.600
Kevin Gregg 316 19 5 6.0% 0.263
Rich Harden 773 44 15 5.7% 0.341
Aaron Heilman 299 17 5 5.7% 0.294
Ted Lilly 568 31 11 5.5% 0.355
Carlos Marmol 340 18 6 5.3% 0.333
Jose Ascanio 58 3 1 5.2% 0.333
Chad Fox 24 1 0 4.2% 0.000
Cubs 5,281 386 102 7.3% 0.264
MLB 161,767 12,988 3,177 8.0% 0.245

The Cubs’ GB/pitch rate is lower than league average. What this doesn’t factor in is the rate of whiffs, fouls and takes. If you miss a lot of bats, or throw a lot of balls, all the other rates (including ground ball) will be artificially lowered. But we’ll roll with it - for now.

The BABIP shows the Cubs have been a little bit unlucky on ground balls. And/or the infield defense isn’t as efficient as other teams’. In any case, we’re only talking about six weeks of data, so take your grain of salt.

Notes on the pitchers:

  • Wells and Patton are getting a good amount of ground balls. Wells has been unlucky on his, while Patton has been on the lucky side. That’s a good sign for Wells, who may stick around with the Cubs for a while. So will Patton, though.
  • Marshall has the highest GB/P of the starters (Wells excluded). Zambrano and Dempster are ground ball pitchers, but their rates take a hit since they both miss a lot of bats. Dempster in particular is a whiff machine. Zambrano misses the zone a lot, too.
  • Cotts has bad luck, but a good GB/P rate. That’s from a guy who really can’t throw strikes.
  • It makes me a little nervous that the late inning guys appear to be fly ball pitchers. Marmol misses bats more than enough, so I hope my next pass, which includes other batted ball types, paints a prettier picture.

Just to be clear, I’m not introducing a new stat here, it is too flawed for repeat usage. Still, it’s a decent barometer on a important aspect of pitching.

May 10th, 2009

Bullpen Reinforcements

By Bob Romashko

With the injury to Chad Fox last night, Jose Ascanio was called up to the majors today. Given that the Cubs bullpen currently has the worst ERA in the majors, we can expect other changes coming up. David Patton probably isn’t long for this team, and I don’t think Neal Cotts should start shopping for real estate in Chicago either.

I think there are five likely bullpen additions who are in the Cubs system right now, not counting Jeff Samardzija, since he just got sent back down this week and will probably stay down for a while:

Randy Wells (MLB): Wells is already on the Cubs, of course, having started Friday’s game and done a pretty good job. He’s allowed no runs in ten innings in the majors, and had a 2.77 ERA in Iowa. If he pitches decently in his next start or two, depending how many he gets, he may get a role in the Cubs bullpen.

Jeff Stevens (AAA): In fifteen innings in Iowa he hasn’t allowed a run. He’s struck out twelve and walked four. He was one of the players acquired in the Mark DeRosa trade, and I think he was judged the most major-league ready. Last year in AAA he had a 3.94 ERA, striking out 44 to 16 walks.

Jason Waddell (AAA): Waddell is sporting a 3.38 ERA in 10.2 innings in AAA. He’s struck out and walked 5. None of this is impressive, but unlike most of the other guys on this list, he throws left-handed, so if the Cubs jettison Cotts he’s a likely replacement. Last year in AA he struck out 70 and walked 36, in only 64 innings, so he’s got some potential there.

Kevin Hart (AAA): Hart’s minor league numbers aren’t anything to write home about this year. He’s got a 7.43 ERA in 13.1 innings, although he has struck out seventeen and walked only five. I wouldn’t think he’d be a likely callup given his past performance, but he’s been with the Cubs a couple of times before, so I don’t think it can be ruled out. He’d probably have to put together some good innings in Iowa first, though.

John Gaub (AA): Is in Tennessee, where he’s got a 2.16 ERA in 8.1 innings. He’s also struck out a comical 15 in that span, walking four. Having never pitched above AA it’s tough to say if he’d be able to get guys out in the majors. But he’s a lefty who, over his entire minor league career has struck out 14.1 per nine innings. I don’t know if he could get good lefties out at the major league level yet, but he’s obviously doing something right.

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