On the eve of August 1, the Chicago Cubs were just a half game back of the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals and had posted a 7-3 record in their previous ten games. 18 days and 15 games later, the North Siders are six games back in the standings and have gone 3-7 in their last ten contests. We’re just over halfway through the month and things are starting to look dire for the lovable losers.

It’s been a tough month for everyone, but no one more so than closer Kevin Gregg. In eight appearances this August, Gregg has an ERA of 11.25. Last night in San Diego Gregg gave up an RBI double to let the Padres tie up the game then surrendered a three-run shot to rookie Kyle Blanks for the loss.

Because Cub fans are masochistic by nature, let’s take a closer look at Gregg’s performances in the month of August, shall we?

——–
*August 1 - Cubs 9, Marlins 8 – Ryan Theriot’s two-run double in the top of the ninth inning puts the Cubs up 8-5. Gregg, facing the Marlins for the first time since being traded from Florida to the Cubs in the offseason, takes the mound for the bottom of the ninth. After striking out the first two batters, Gregg works two strikes on the pinch-hitting Ronny Paulino but can’t finish him off; Paulino goes yard to make the score 8-6. Chris Coghlan and Nick Johnson both single and Emilio Bonifacio’s triple sends both runners home, tying the game at 8-8.

Of course, if you check the box score, Gregg earned the win, as Derrek Lee’s solo homer in the top of the 10th gave the North Siders a 9-8 victory. There’s an undeserved W if I’ve ever seen one.

*August 2 - Marlins 3, Cubs 2 - For the second straight day, Gregg appears to have forgotten which team he plays for. The Cubs closer stepped in for the save after Jake Fox’s solo shot in the top of the ninth put Chicago up 2-1.  With one out on the board, Gregg gets lit up by Dan Uggla and Cody Ross on back-to-back pitches. Two pitches, two homers, two blown saves in two straight days.

*August 5 – Reds 4, Cubs 0 – Lou Piniella sends Gregg in for some work in the bottom of the eighth with his team down 4-0. With the pressure off, Gregg pitches like a Major Leaguer, sitting down three straight batters for a hitless, scoreless eighth. Keep reading →

Over at Goat Riders of the Apocalypse, ajwalsh wrote a couple of days ago about how the Cubs’ window is closing. Even if the Cubs don’t win a thing this year, I don’t think the concept of a “window” really applies to this team.

The Cubs payroll presently stands at $138 million, according to Cot’s MLB Contracts’ spreadsheet. Most of this year’s team is going to be back next year; Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and Rich Harden are the only main contributors on this team that aren’t under club control for next season. A few players become arbitration-eligible and their price tags will go up, but right now the Cubs are obligated to pay out $120 million next season. They could conceivably sign a couple of pieces in free agency if they need to without increasing their payroll from this year, or even decreasing it slightly.

Pretty much everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for this year’s team. Harden has been lousy. Dempster has a broken toe and is out a month. Zambrano went on the disabled list. Aramis Ramirez was on the disabled list for a long time. Bradley, Soriano, and Fontenot have all been very bad. Lee looked washed up for a month before he started hitting. Soto fell off a cliff and then when he started to come around, got hurt. And in spite of all of those things, the team is a little bit over .500 and competing for a bad division.

I suppose the question one needs to ask is, is what happened to all these players representative of their talent levels as they age, or is it a fluke? For Bradley, Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez, the answer is probably a little of both. They’re all getting older and are going to miss time and their skills will decline. But the declines we’ve seen from Bradley and Soriano strike me as fluky. Both of them will finish with disappointing numbers on the season, and everyone will revise their expectations next season down somewhat as a result. But Bradley will be 32 next season and Soriano will be 34. Neither’s career is over just yet. They won’t necessarily be as good as they have been in their careers, but they probably won’t be as bad as they have been, either.

Keep reading →

After today’s 6-0 shutout at the hands of the White Sox, cubs.com is running the headline, “Cubs raise White flag in Crosstown Showdown.“  The headline is, of course, evocative of the famous “White Flag Trade” the Sox made with the Giants in 1997. On July 31, 1997, the Sox, 3.5 games out of first place, traded three major-league players for six prospects (including now-former Cub Bob Howry). The Sox went on to lose their division by six games, and the Giants won theirs. Now, today, the Cubs are 3.5 games out of first place a month earlier. At some point you have to ask if they should just pull the plug and build for the future. I’m not saying they should - if your roster underperforms like the Cubs have and one of your best players is about to come off the disabled list, and you’re only 3.5 out, you’ve at least got a shot. But what would it look like if the Cubs wanted to unload veterans for prospects?

The problem here is that you can’t have a fire sale without product to move. The Cubs only have a few players who might be attractive trade targets for another team, and even those have problems. Here are a couple of likely suspects, though:

• Derrek Lee - Lee is hitting well and has a contract that only goes through next season, making him a reasonably acquisition for a team looking for a bat. At the beginning of the year it looked like he was pretty much done, but he’s been the best hitter on the Cubs since the start of May, and he’s got a reputation as a very good defender. This might also work for the Cubs because they could platoon Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir at first without totally crippling themselves. The problem here is that Lee has a no-trade clause, which, supposedly, he told the Cubs he would not waive when asked about it this winter.
• Kevin Gregg - Gregg is only signed through the end of the season, after which he’s a free agent. So his contract is right. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been all that great. Still, he’s striking out a lot of hitters (more than one per inning) and his walk rates are where they’ve always been. A team in a pitcher’s park might decide he’s worth the risk.
• Reed Johnson - Reed isn’t expensive, so he’s not usual fire sale material. But, assuming he’s fine when he comes off the disabled list and can put together a couple of decent weeks, he might net something. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, so his contract doesn’t require any commitment. He can play all three outfield positions, he’s hitting decently (although not great), and he’s better if you can use him mostly against lefties.

Keep reading →

Ground balls are valuable. They’re not* likely to result in hits, particularly of the extra base variety. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, they are even more valuable - an extreme ground ball pitcher can survive any type of weather.

*corrected

Since I’m playing around with some PITCHf/x data, I figured I’d share some stats on the Cubs’ ground ball pitching tendencies. This is sorted by the ground ball rate (grounders divided by pitches). I also included the rate of hits on ground balls - better known as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for grounders. The bottom rows give you the team totals and the league totals for 2009.

The Cubs’ GB/pitch rate is lower than league average. What this doesn’t factor in is the rate of whiffs, fouls and takes. If you miss a lot of bats, or throw a lot of balls, all the other rates (including ground ball) will be artificially lowered. But we’ll roll with it - for now.

The BABIP shows the Cubs have been a little bit unlucky on ground balls. And/or the infield defense isn’t as efficient as other teams’. In any case, we’re only talking about six weeks of data, so take your grain of salt.

Notes on the pitchers:

• Wells and Patton are getting a good amount of ground balls. Wells has been unlucky on his, while Patton has been on the lucky side. That’s a good sign for Wells, who may stick around with the Cubs for a while. So will Patton, though.
• Marshall has the highest GB/P of the starters (Wells excluded). Zambrano and Dempster are ground ball pitchers, but their rates take a hit since they both miss a lot of bats. Dempster in particular is a whiff machine. Zambrano misses the zone a lot, too.
• Cotts has bad luck, but a good GB/P rate. That’s from a guy who really can’t throw strikes.
• It makes me a little nervous that the late inning guys appear to be fly ball pitchers. Marmol misses bats more than enough, so I hope my next pass, which includes other batted ball types, paints a prettier picture.

Just to be clear, I’m not introducing a new stat here, it is too flawed for repeat usage. Still, it’s a decent barometer on a important aspect of pitching.

The Cubs wrap-up a successful week on Sunday with the final game of a rain-shortened series against the Astros. After a week of changes, the Cubs had a week of better baseball. Starting with some updates from the Junior Circuit, here are few things from this week that stuck-out.

Alumni Report

I’d say “Orioles Week in Review”, since it means the same thing, but that would be inappropriate. Felix Pie still can’t hit, but Rich Hill may have remembered how to pitch. His fastball looks to be a little slower than the good old days, but his control is most of the way back.

The Royals were Hill’s first foe of the year, and they really didn’t look like much of a test the first time through the order. When they turned it over, following a nine-pitch third by the lefty from Massachusetts, they started getting better hacks.

Still, it was a solid outing for Hill, who worked into the sixth inning and got the win. Quite impressive, considering his last pitch as a Cub was a 55-foot fastball, and his minor league and Winter ball performances were awful.

Things Look Familiar—Minus One Key Piece

The Cubs are on about the same pace as 2008, but will be without Aramis Ramirez for eight weeks, I’d guesstimate.

2009
21-14 (May 16)
2nd place, 0.5 GB

2008
20-15 (May 9)
2nd place, 1.0 GB

Keep reading →