Center field shouldn’t be too much of a mystery for the Cubs in 2010. After disappointing numbers in right field in 2008, Kosuke Fukudome spent this season in center where he’s hit .260/.377/.423. He’s been roughly average as a defensive center fielder, and that batting line is good for the position. As a good hitter and average fielder, you’d think that Fukudome would have the position locked up.

But with Milton Bradley obviously done in Chicago, the Cubs are going to need to fill Fukudome’s old position, and Fukudome seems like the most likely candidate. If that happens, the Cubs will need to consider who to replace Fukudome with. I’m going to throw out Reed Johnson here. The Cubs have had ample opportunities to give Johnson a starting role and I think they recognize that he’s best used as a situational player - although he may be a better option than the two in-house options I’m about to talk about.

The Cubs have a pair of lefty rookies who may get a shot at the job next season. Sam Fuld has been embarrassingly lauded by Cubs fans, getting “Sammy” chants at least once at Wrigley field. He has played very well in limited major-league playing time this season, with a .288 average and .406 on-base percentage, though no power to speak of. He’s been below average in center field this season, but that’s in only 13 starts, which I agree means almost nothing - he ought to be at least average defensively. But Fuld is a 27-year-old rookie for a reason: his numbers in the batter-friendly Pacific Coast League at AAA were good but not especially impressive, suggesting nothing good about his major-league prospects.

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After last April, Kosuke Fukudome was the presumptive Rookie of the Year, a Japanese star who had come over to the US and who was poised to help carry the Cubs with great on-base skills, a little pop in his bat and some slick fielding. Of course, we know how that turned out. Every month after April last season saw his stats decline. He remained a good fielder, but his bat was suspect and he ended up having a pretty mediocre season, especially for the money the Cubs were paying him.

So when Kosuke got off to a hot start this season I think a lot of people were a little skeptical. It was nice that he had a good April, but we’d seen this before, and we expected him to fade. And sure enough, he did. He hit a terrible .169/.266/.241 in June. That was worse than any of this months last year, meaning that his hotter start was being followed by an even worse skid, and we could expect another year of bad play.

Instead, Fukudome turned it around in July. His hitting coach from Japan joined the Cubs on July 18, and whether that’s the only reason, since then Fukudome has hit .372/.487/.583. He leads all Cubs batters in wins above replacement with 3.1. And he’s reversed the trend he showed last year, where he declined almost every month:

Furthermore, after a rough start in center field, Fukudome seems to be doing better at the position. He’s now been basically average for a center fielder, defensively, over the course of the season. That’s good enough, given that among qualified center fielders, he’s first in on base percentage, eighth in slugging, and second in wOBA this season.

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In spite of a 4-1 win last night against the Pirates and a 2-1 series win, the Cubs offense continues to struggle - they scored seven runs in three games against Pittsburgh and managed to get shut out by Russ Ohlendorf. It’s time to examine some of the culprits.

One of the better ways to do this is through Weighted On Base Average. If you don’t know wOBA, you can check out that link for an explanation. But in short, it attempts to assign a value in runs to everything a player does at the plate, and then gives you an average of that number per plate appearance. The whole thing is then multiplied by a coefficient so that the stat works on about the same scale as on-base percentage.

So here’s a table of the wOBAs of all Cubs hitters with 100 PA or more. I’ve included, in red, the 2008 national league average, and a rough estimate of what “replacement level” is. The idea behind replacement level is that any given team probably has a player who can perform at about this level just hanging out at AAA - basically that’s about level of production you would expect in the long term from a career minor-leaguer. A team full of replacement-level players would be historically bad.

Not a lot of surprises at the top or the bottom. Derrek Lee has been the best regular for the team this season, having completely made up for his slow start and then some. Aaron Miles has been positively awful. Fukudome has fallen off as the year has gone on, but his cumulative numbers are still solid. Reed Johnson has been very good, although he’s on the disabled list right now. Theriot has been about average - which isn’t actually bad at all for a shortstop, who are often below average.

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The Cubs announced today that Reed Johnson will be placed on the 15-day disabled list tomorrow, and Ryan Freel will be activated. Johnson’s injury couldn’t come at a worse time, as the Cubs badly need help in center field.

Over the past 28 days, Kosuke Fukudome is hitting .156/.276/.219. If Johnson were available, the smart thing to do would be to abandon the platoon and let him take over some of Fukudome’s at bats against righties. He’s not good against right-handed pitching, but he’s not as bad as Fukudome has been, either.

Freel will almost certainly be called upon to fill in for Johnson as the right-handed half of that platoon. He hit .417 on his rehab stint in Iowa, so he does seem to be better, and he’s been a competent center fielder in his career. But Freel hasn’t been an everyday player since 2006, and he’s hit .152 in limited big-league action this season. His projection for the rest of this season is .254/.329/.370, which is probably not as good as Reed Johnson would bring to the table.

Then again, the Cubs don’t have many other options. Jim Edmonds might be coaxed out of retirement again, but it’s pretty obvious the Cubs didn’t think he had much in the tank for this year. They could recall the newly-married Sam Fuld, but he’s probably not a better option than Freel. A trade seems to be out of the question, as the Cubs, in spite of rumors they might sign Pedro Martinez, probably don’t have money to spare. And the crop of center fielders who will be free agents after this season is pretty unimpressive anyway - the best ones play for other teams in the NL Central. I’d have suggested Coco Crisp if you’d asked me yesterday, but aside from money issues, Crisp is now out for the rest of the season.

So, help does not seem to be on the way. Hopefully Johnson’s back spasms respond well to a couple of weeks of rest, because unless Fukudome turns things around, the Cubs’ struggling offense could really use him - his bat is only adequate, but adequate might just be an improvement.

The Cubs scored a whole run yesterday. Score like three or four more of those and you’ve got an average offensive game from a major league team. So Lou Piniella is rightfully upset, and hes talking about making changes. Rick Morrissey has some ideas what those changes should be. Let’s take a look at what he suggests.

1. Move Alfonso Soriano down in the order and play him at second base - This is a bad idea. I don’t really care where Soriano bats - when he’s playing well he’s fine in the leadoff spot. Right now he’s not playing well, but the reason is that he’s hurt. He’s got a bum knee, and because of it he’s hitting .154 over the last month. Soriano doesn’t need the strain of playing the infield. He needs rest. Right now he’s a liability. Get him out of the lineup for a few days and give him a chance to get some treatment for the knee without stressing it every day. Moving him into the infield is the worst possible thing the Cubs could do.
2. Bat Ryan Theriot leadoff - This is a push. Someone has to bat leadoff while Soriano isn’t in the lineup, and Theriot has been decent at getting on base in his career, so he’s as good a choice as anyone, I suppose. But Theriot hasn’t been doing a great job getting on base over the last month, either - he’s only OBP’ing .319 since then. So this is hardly a panacea.
3. Put Jake Fox in left field - This is a good idea. Again, Morrissey thinks that Soriano should be playing second, thus opening space for Fox. I think that’s crazy talk. But if Soriano is going to be resting his knee for a few days, I would gladly take the risk that Fox can’t competently field anything hit at him for the chance that he might knock one out of the park. I would probably platoon him and Hoffpauir, though.
4. Give Reed Johnson a real shot in center field and platoon Kosuke with Johnson and Fox - This is a good idea. In fact, it doesn’t go far enough. Kosuke is already platooning with Johnson. Fukudome has only batted against lefthanded pitching 11 times. Given how poorly Fukudome is hitting recently, I would go ahead and give Johnson more at-bats against right handers too, at least for a while. He’s bad against righties, but right now Fukudome looks pretty lost.

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The Cubs have not played very good baseball since I wrote a post the other day called “encouraging signs,” so I thought maybe a little reverse psychology would work. The good news is that the Cubs pitching was great through most of the Cardinals series. The bad news, of course, is that the Cubs hit terribly. It’s rare that you would go into PETCO to face Jake Peavy and think that the offense would almost have to get better, but it can’t really get any worse.

The truth is, the Cardinals didn’t hit that much better than the Cubs in the series - but they were better, and they hit the ball out and managed to get runs home, and the Cubs scattered most of their hits. So, three Cubs pitchers get losses they didn’t really deserve and the team goes on to San Diego to try to break a four-game losing streak.

The good news is, even though San Diego is at home, their pitching looks familiar - Jake Peavy pitches on Friday, and Chris Young on Sunday. Both can be very good pitchers, but the Cubs managed to hit them well a week ago, so maybe they’ll face them with a little confidence. As for Saturday, Josh Geer will be starting for the Padres. The Cubs missed him last time, but with a 5.61 ERA in spite of playing half his games in PETCO, he hasn’t been too intimidating yet. He’s sort of hit-or-miss, though - although most of his outings have been bad this season, he’s managed two starts where he’s only given up a run and worked seven or eight innings.

Still, the Cubs need to get going offensively. A big part of that is taking walks. When the Cubs offense is at its best, it’s incredibly patient. Fukudome, Bradley, Soto and Fontenot can all show very good patience at times, and Lee is no slouch in that department either. Even when those hitters aren’t hitting well, they can make pitchers work if they’re not throwing strikes. The Cubs didn’t have the opportunity to do this much against the Cardinals - the Cardinals pitchers were just pounding the strike zone, and when that happens there’s not much patience will do for you. But throwing strikes that hitters can’t do much with is hard, and even good pitchers have trouble doing it consistently. If the Cubs don’t press, they ought to be able to break through and take a couple of games against the Padres, who are still the team the Cubs swept last week. Winning two out of four on the road trip wouldn’t be ideal, but it would be a far sight better than dropping five or six.

The Cubs finished up the home stand with a loss yesterday - Rich Harden didn’t have a particularly good outing, and neither did Jose Ascanio. After today’s off day, they’ll play six on the road — three in St. Louis and three in San Diego. Even though they just swept the Padres last week, I’d be happy with a 3-3 road trip.

In spite of the loss, though, there were a few positive signs over the course of the homestand. The first, of course, is that the Cubs went 4-1. But I want to highlight a few individual performances in the last week or so:

• Kosuke Fukudome continued his hot start. He went 8-for-20 with three walks and a steal. After going 0-13 against the Marlins and Giants, he’s hit over .400 over the last nine games. He’s going to cool off at some point, but as time goes on, it’s looking less and less like his second half last year really reflected his talent. Couple that with his move from a premium offensive position to center field, and most Cubs fans ought to be pretty happy with his production.
• Derrek Lee returned from his neck injury and struggled at first, but had a great day at the plate yesterday, going 4-5 with a double and a home run. It was actually his second day in a row with a hit. I don’t want to take a lot away from one game at all, but it was nice to see Derrek hit the ball hard. I don’t think there’s any question that he’s still talented, but it was starting to look like he just wasn’t capable of crushing the ball, and he left me cautiously optimistic there’s something left in the tank.
• Geovany Soto is another player who it’s good to see hit the ball hard. After his bad start and his shoulder injury, I was worried he too may not be able to do that anymore. But he got his first home run of the season in the rain-shortened game against the Padres, picked up a double in the first game against the Astros, and has actually reached base in his last seven games. Again, I was starting to believe couldn’t hit the ball hard anymore, and he’s actually starting to put together some nice performances at the plate again.

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Kosuke is out of the lineup tonight against the Astros because Mike Hampton, a lefthander, is starting for Houston. In a way, this doesn’t come as a surprise. At the start of the season, Lou said he was going to platoon Kosuke and Reed Johnson, and he’s pretty much done so when he’s had the opportunity.

But in another way, it is a surprise. At the start of the season, I think everyone, myself included, thought Kosuke wasn’t going to have a good year. Yet he entered tonight’s game hitting .300/.436/.525. So far he’s been great with the bat. He hasn’t been great in center field, but he seems to be getting better at it, and he’s only played 120 innings there.

Platooning Fukudome and Johnson isn’t all bad. The Cubs suggested that one of the reasons for Fukudome’s struggles last season was because he was used to a shorter schedule, and because he had been injured in 2007. So basically, he got tired. Obviously, if he’s platooning, he’ll get some more rest.

And what’s more, Reed Johnson is a great platoon candidate. Johnson is a career .283/.344/.408 hitter. That’s not good at all, though not bad for a center fielder. Johnson is also not a good defensive center fielder, though, even though he has a tendency to make some flashy plays. (Remember, you don’t remember the diving catches he misses, just the ones he makes.) Over the course of a full season in center field, Johnson would cost you about 15 runs with his glove. That’s not doing anything to help with those lousy offensive numbers.

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MOUTHPIECESPORTS.COM personality and Chicago Cubs correspondent Sarah Spain will be blogging from the press box at Wrigley Field all season long. CUBS 101: Sarah Spain’s Wrigley Ramblings, will keep fans up-to-date on Lou’s Crew as they try to go all the way 101 short years after their last World Series win.

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12:29pm - About an hour from the first pitch and today’s lineup is certainly unusual. The Cubs are in the midst of 20 straight games without a day off and Lou Piniella decided today would be the day to rest many of his everyday guys. The red-hot Ryan Theriot will sit out, as will Alfonso Soriano–both had played every game of the season heading into today. Aramis Ramirez and Milton Bradley both have the day off (because both are coming off injuries Lou wanted to avoid the quick night-to-day turnaround). Lou also said that Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg will be unavailable today; Heilman will close if necessary. New Cubs Joey Gathright, Micah Hoffpauir and Aaron Miles will be in center, left and second, respectively. Today’s start will be Bobby Scales’ first in the major leagues. At 31 years, seven months and two days old, he looks to be the fourth player 31 years or older since the end of World War II to make his MLB debut with the Cubs. He’s earned it, good luck to him.

Here’s today’s unusual order:

Gathright CF, Miles SS, Fukudome RF, Lee 1B, Hoffpauir LF, Fontenot 3B, Scales 2B, Hill C, Marshall P

12:49pm - In honor of Cinco de Drinko Mayo, each of Cubs starting pitcher Sean Marshall’s Ks today will be marked with a festive pinata, like so…

…let’s hope the Giants’ batters resemble drunken party-goers, blindly flailing away at a pinata…

Speaking of drunk and pinatas…when I still lived in LA my kickball team, Dirty Sanchez and Pals, (California State Champions! What What!) had a game on Cinco de Mayo. I went out and purchased a red pepper pinata, brought it to the game, stuffed a bag of wine into it, cut a hole in the bottom and hung it from the backstop. It was like Gatorade, but much, much better. Perhaps the best invention I’ve ever come up with.

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