Posts Tagged pitchfx

July 1st, 2009

Samardzija Returns With a Curveball

By Harry Pavlidis

Jeff Samardzija is back with the Chicago Cubs, and back in the bullpen. After nothing but starts since his demotion in May, the now stretched-out righty will be working middle-ish relief for the big club.

While in Iowa, Samardzija handled the Pacific Coast League without much difficulty, but it wasn’t about the numbers. The Cubs sent Samardzija down, essentially to improve on his secondary pitches. The result is a curveball that had been shelved in favor of a slider. The split-fingered fastball remains in the repertoire, along with the two-seam fastball. Samardzija does throw a four-seam heater, but it’s the moving two-seamer (more tail than sink) that regularly reaches the upper 90s that has been the main ingredient of Samardzija’s success — limited as that may be.

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May 19th, 2009

Cubs Pitching Staff: Ground Ball Tendencies

By Harry Pavlidis

Ground balls are valuable. They’re not* likely to result in hits, particularly of the extra base variety. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, they are even more valuable - an extreme ground ball pitcher can survive any type of weather.

*corrected

Since I’m playing around with some PITCHf/x data, I figured I’d share some stats on the Cubs’ ground ball pitching tendencies. This is sorted by the ground ball rate (grounders divided by pitches). I also included the rate of hits on ground balls - better known as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for grounders. The bottom rows give you the team totals and the league totals for 2009.

Pitcher Pitches GB GBH GB/P H/GB
Luis Vizcaino 51 6 0 11.8% 0.000
Randy Wells 181 19 7 10.5% 0.368
David Patton 219 22 5 10.0% 0.227
Sean Marshall 497 49 10 9.9% 0.204
Neal Cotts 167 15 6 9.0% 0.400
Carlos Zambrano 619 50 10 8.1% 0.200
Ryan Dempster 803 64 15 8.0% 0.234
Angel Guzman 292 23 3 7.9% 0.130
Jeff Samardzija 74 5 3 6.8% 0.600
Kevin Gregg 316 19 5 6.0% 0.263
Rich Harden 773 44 15 5.7% 0.341
Aaron Heilman 299 17 5 5.7% 0.294
Ted Lilly 568 31 11 5.5% 0.355
Carlos Marmol 340 18 6 5.3% 0.333
Jose Ascanio 58 3 1 5.2% 0.333
Chad Fox 24 1 0 4.2% 0.000
Cubs 5,281 386 102 7.3% 0.264
MLB 161,767 12,988 3,177 8.0% 0.245

The Cubs’ GB/pitch rate is lower than league average. What this doesn’t factor in is the rate of whiffs, fouls and takes. If you miss a lot of bats, or throw a lot of balls, all the other rates (including ground ball) will be artificially lowered. But we’ll roll with it - for now.

The BABIP shows the Cubs have been a little bit unlucky on ground balls. And/or the infield defense isn’t as efficient as other teams’. In any case, we’re only talking about six weeks of data, so take your grain of salt.

Notes on the pitchers:

  • Wells and Patton are getting a good amount of ground balls. Wells has been unlucky on his, while Patton has been on the lucky side. That’s a good sign for Wells, who may stick around with the Cubs for a while. So will Patton, though.
  • Marshall has the highest GB/P of the starters (Wells excluded). Zambrano and Dempster are ground ball pitchers, but their rates take a hit since they both miss a lot of bats. Dempster in particular is a whiff machine. Zambrano misses the zone a lot, too.
  • Cotts has bad luck, but a good GB/P rate. That’s from a guy who really can’t throw strikes.
  • It makes me a little nervous that the late inning guys appear to be fly ball pitchers. Marmol misses bats more than enough, so I hope my next pass, which includes other batted ball types, paints a prettier picture.

Just to be clear, I’m not introducing a new stat here, it is too flawed for repeat usage. Still, it’s a decent barometer on a important aspect of pitching.

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