Ground balls are valuable. They’re not* likely to result in hits, particularly of the extra base variety. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, they are even more valuable - an extreme ground ball pitcher can survive any type of weather.
*corrected
Since I’m playing around with some PITCHf/x data, I figured I’d share some stats on the Cubs’ ground ball pitching tendencies. This is sorted by the ground ball rate (grounders divided by pitches). I also included the rate of hits on ground balls - better known as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for grounders. The bottom rows give you the team totals and the league totals for 2009.
| Pitcher |
Pitches |
GB |
GBH |
GB/P |
H/GB |
| Luis Vizcaino |
51 |
6 |
0 |
11.8% |
0.000 |
| Randy Wells |
181 |
19 |
7 |
10.5% |
0.368 |
| David Patton |
219 |
22 |
5 |
10.0% |
0.227 |
| Sean Marshall |
497 |
49 |
10 |
9.9% |
0.204 |
| Neal Cotts |
167 |
15 |
6 |
9.0% |
0.400 |
| Carlos Zambrano |
619 |
50 |
10 |
8.1% |
0.200 |
| Ryan Dempster |
803 |
64 |
15 |
8.0% |
0.234 |
| Angel Guzman |
292 |
23 |
3 |
7.9% |
0.130 |
| Jeff Samardzija |
74 |
5 |
3 |
6.8% |
0.600 |
| Kevin Gregg |
316 |
19 |
5 |
6.0% |
0.263 |
| Rich Harden |
773 |
44 |
15 |
5.7% |
0.341 |
| Aaron Heilman |
299 |
17 |
5 |
5.7% |
0.294 |
| Ted Lilly |
568 |
31 |
11 |
5.5% |
0.355 |
| Carlos Marmol |
340 |
18 |
6 |
5.3% |
0.333 |
| Jose Ascanio |
58 |
3 |
1 |
5.2% |
0.333 |
| Chad Fox |
24 |
1 |
0 |
4.2% |
0.000 |
| Cubs |
5,281 |
386 |
102 |
7.3% |
0.264 |
| MLB |
161,767 |
12,988 |
3,177 |
8.0% |
0.245 |
The Cubs’ GB/pitch rate is lower than league average. What this doesn’t factor in is the rate of whiffs, fouls and takes. If you miss a lot of bats, or throw a lot of balls, all the other rates (including ground ball) will be artificially lowered. But we’ll roll with it - for now.
The BABIP shows the Cubs have been a little bit unlucky on ground balls. And/or the infield defense isn’t as efficient as other teams’. In any case, we’re only talking about six weeks of data, so take your grain of salt.
Notes on the pitchers:
- Wells and Patton are getting a good amount of ground balls. Wells has been unlucky on his, while Patton has been on the lucky side. That’s a good sign for Wells, who may stick around with the Cubs for a while. So will Patton, though.
- Marshall has the highest GB/P of the starters (Wells excluded). Zambrano and Dempster are ground ball pitchers, but their rates take a hit since they both miss a lot of bats. Dempster in particular is a whiff machine. Zambrano misses the zone a lot, too.
- Cotts has bad luck, but a good GB/P rate. That’s from a guy who really can’t throw strikes.
- It makes me a little nervous that the late inning guys appear to be fly ball pitchers. Marmol misses bats more than enough, so I hope my next pass, which includes other batted ball types, paints a prettier picture.
Just to be clear, I’m not introducing a new stat here, it is too flawed for repeat usage. Still, it’s a decent barometer on a important aspect of pitching.