Randy Wells has made five starts, never giving up more than three runs and lasting at least five innings each time out. Yet, he has not earned a single win. That tells you something about the utility of Wins as a pitching stat.

Anyone else go through such a streak? Yep, as a matter of fact, even another Cub.

I used Baseball Reference’s Play Index tool to find streaks that are similar to Wells’:

Longest Streak with W=0, ER<=3 From 1954 to 2009, Playing for CHC, as Starter, To start the season

You can find the report here, but what I’m using is whittled down with these additional criteria:

• Minimum 5 IP per start
• Starts must be consecutive without relief appearances in between or before the streak

One other Cubs pitcher had such a streak, back in September of 1988, shortly after the lights were turned on at Wrigley Field.

If you view the full report, you can see lots of other pitchers who passed the initial filters. I stopped checking after streaks of four to find qualifiers based on the second filter.

Harkey would go on to finish 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1990. His strong, but winless, September call-up turned into 27 starts and 12 wins in his official rookie campaign.

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The Cubs went through quite a bit in May. Milton Bradley served his suspension, and Carlos Zambrano started his. Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ryan Freel, Aaron Miles, Aramis Ramirez and Chad Fox all hit the disabled list.

Zambrano came back briefly, as alluded to above. Harden is due back soon, but Ramirez is out until July.  Miles and Freel are somewhere in between.

Freel was acquired, Jeff Samardzija demoted, Joey Gathright traded, while Randy Wells and Jose Ascanio were promoted.

Jake replaced Chad in the Fox role, and Andres Blanco got his glove into the game.

Jason Waddell took Neal Cotts’ spot - for now - but the pitching roles, particularly Sean Marshall’s, will change over the next few days.

Bobby Scales made his debut, stuck around, got demoted.  He was recalled before even a day went by, when Freel injured his hamstring.

Take a look at the rosters on the first of May and the first of June.

*suspended as of June 1

Only 18 spots, counting Zambrano’s, have come up the same at both points in time.  Some guys will come back soon, and June could be just as dizzying as May. Unless they start winning consistently.

Ground balls are valuable. They’re not* likely to result in hits, particularly of the extra base variety. When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, they are even more valuable - an extreme ground ball pitcher can survive any type of weather.

*corrected

Since I’m playing around with some PITCHf/x data, I figured I’d share some stats on the Cubs’ ground ball pitching tendencies. This is sorted by the ground ball rate (grounders divided by pitches). I also included the rate of hits on ground balls - better known as the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for grounders. The bottom rows give you the team totals and the league totals for 2009.

The Cubs’ GB/pitch rate is lower than league average. What this doesn’t factor in is the rate of whiffs, fouls and takes. If you miss a lot of bats, or throw a lot of balls, all the other rates (including ground ball) will be artificially lowered. But we’ll roll with it - for now.

The BABIP shows the Cubs have been a little bit unlucky on ground balls. And/or the infield defense isn’t as efficient as other teams’. In any case, we’re only talking about six weeks of data, so take your grain of salt.

Notes on the pitchers:

• Wells and Patton are getting a good amount of ground balls. Wells has been unlucky on his, while Patton has been on the lucky side. That’s a good sign for Wells, who may stick around with the Cubs for a while. So will Patton, though.
• Marshall has the highest GB/P of the starters (Wells excluded). Zambrano and Dempster are ground ball pitchers, but their rates take a hit since they both miss a lot of bats. Dempster in particular is a whiff machine. Zambrano misses the zone a lot, too.
• Cotts has bad luck, but a good GB/P rate. That’s from a guy who really can’t throw strikes.
• It makes me a little nervous that the late inning guys appear to be fly ball pitchers. Marmol misses bats more than enough, so I hope my next pass, which includes other batted ball types, paints a prettier picture.

Just to be clear, I’m not introducing a new stat here, it is too flawed for repeat usage. Still, it’s a decent barometer on a important aspect of pitching.

The Cubs wrap-up a successful week on Sunday with the final game of a rain-shortened series against the Astros. After a week of changes, the Cubs had a week of better baseball. Starting with some updates from the Junior Circuit, here are few things from this week that stuck-out.

Alumni Report

I’d say “Orioles Week in Review”, since it means the same thing, but that would be inappropriate. Felix Pie still can’t hit, but Rich Hill may have remembered how to pitch. His fastball looks to be a little slower than the good old days, but his control is most of the way back.

The Royals were Hill’s first foe of the year, and they really didn’t look like much of a test the first time through the order. When they turned it over, following a nine-pitch third by the lefty from Massachusetts, they started getting better hacks.

Still, it was a solid outing for Hill, who worked into the sixth inning and got the win. Quite impressive, considering his last pitch as a Cub was a 55-foot fastball, and his minor league and Winter ball performances were awful.

Things Look Familiar—Minus One Key Piece

The Cubs are on about the same pace as 2008, but will be without Aramis Ramirez for eight weeks, I’d guesstimate.

2009
21-14 (May 16)
2nd place, 0.5 GB

2008
20-15 (May 9)
2nd place, 1.0 GB

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MOUTHPIECESPORTS.COM personality and Chicago Cubs correspondent Sarah Spain will be blogging from the press box at Wrigley Field all season long. CUBS 101: Sarah Spain’s Wrigley Ramblings, will keep fans up-to-date on Lou’s Crew as they try to go all the way 101 short years after their last World Series win.

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11:27pm - Just about a half hour from game time. Lou Piniella is sticking with the same lineup he had for yesterday’s game, which got postponed due to the rain. The Cubs bumped their pitchers over a day, so yesterday’s starter, Randy Wells, will pitch today. Before the game Lou talked about the young righty: “The secret for Wells is to throw strikes, get ahead of the hitters, pitch ahead in the count,” Lou said. “He’s not a power guy.”

The Astros had Brian Moehler penciled in for yesterday, but after the cancellation he’s been bumped to Sunday. Houston ace Roy Oswalt will take the mound today, as originally scheduled. Should be a big day for young Wells, facing up against one of the best in the game.

11:41pm - Carlos Zambrano is on his way to Florida today. He’ll pitch a rehab start tomorrow at Dunedin then, assuming all goes well, he should be back with the Cubs to pitch the first game of their series with the Padres next Friday.

The other day in the press conference when Lou was talking about Zambrano’s injury, he momentarily forgot which leg had the bum hamstring. When he asked for some help from Chicago Tribune writer Paul Sullivan, he turned the press room into a comedy club. Keep reading →

The Astros follow the Padres into town, bringing two good pitchers and two good hitters. Luckily the Cubs will miss Wandy Rodriguez, but they’ll face Roy Oswalt on Saturday. If the Cubs can beat yet another ace—like they beat Jake Peavy—another sweep could be in order when they face Felipe Paulino on Sunday.

Brian Moehler opens the series against Randy Wells. Moehler has made two starts since coming of the DL, handling the Padres well last time out. Big deal. The Cubs knocked him out in the second inning in April, so I’m expecting action in the Houston bullpen in the fourth inning (Official Guess).

Wells is making his second start in the majors, having been robbed of a win in his first. I like his chances of rebounding. Hopefully he can extend his outing by throwing strikes early on. Find your rhythm in warm-ups, not in the third inning, please.

Oswalt against Sean Marshall probably sounds like a mismatch, but Marshall has been solid, but not spectacular, in the back of the rotation. Marhsall’s velocity has been lower his last couple of starts, so he’s starting to look more like a younger Jamie Moyer than a taller Ted Lilly.

Oswalt hasn’t had much luck in 2009, starting with an Opening Day loss to the Cubs. Oswalt’s most recent start gave him his first win of the season, which is more a reflection of the Astros offense than Oswalt himself.
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In a word: Sweep. In reality: Cubs take two of three.

Jake Peavy and Rich Harden kick off a three-game set at Wrigley on Tuesday night. The battle of stud pitchers is the best shot the Padres have to pick up a win in the series. They play ‘em for a reason, but the odds are most in their favor with Peavy on the mound.

Of course, Harden is nasty and could shut down any offense, especially the anemic Friars. It will be power against power, but Harden does it with two pitches and Peavy with five. It will be fun to watch two of the game’s best go at it. If the Cubs can get Peavy out and the Padre bullpen in before the 7th inning, a sweep could be revving up.

Padre Problems

San Diego is 13-19, but just 5-13 away from Petco. Their offense is one of the weakest in the National League, and they’ve got one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, too. While their fielding percentage isn’t bad, a better indication of team defense is their efficiency rating, also one of the worst in the league.

With Brian Giles struggling, Adrian Gonzalez is the only productive player in the lineup every day. Scott Hairston has been solid in a platoon role, but the rest of the team has been a joke at the plate. And some smart folks are calling for Bud Black’s head. This is a team in serious trouble. Delicious.

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With the injury to Chad Fox last night, Jose Ascanio was called up to the majors today. Given that the Cubs bullpen currently has the worst ERA in the majors, we can expect other changes coming up. David Patton probably isn’t long for this team, and I don’t think Neal Cotts should start shopping for real estate in Chicago either.

I think there are five likely bullpen additions who are in the Cubs system right now, not counting Jeff Samardzija, since he just got sent back down this week and will probably stay down for a while:

Randy Wells (MLB): Wells is already on the Cubs, of course, having started Friday’s game and done a pretty good job. He’s allowed no runs in ten innings in the majors, and had a 2.77 ERA in Iowa. If he pitches decently in his next start or two, depending how many he gets, he may get a role in the Cubs bullpen.

Jeff Stevens (AAA): In fifteen innings in Iowa he hasn’t allowed a run. He’s struck out twelve and walked four. He was one of the players acquired in the Mark DeRosa trade, and I think he was judged the most major-league ready. Last year in AAA he had a 3.94 ERA, striking out 44 to 16 walks.

Jason Waddell (AAA): Waddell is sporting a 3.38 ERA in 10.2 innings in AAA. He’s struck out and walked 5. None of this is impressive, but unlike most of the other guys on this list, he throws left-handed, so if the Cubs jettison Cotts he’s a likely replacement. Last year in AA he struck out 70 and walked 36, in only 64 innings, so he’s got some potential there.

Kevin Hart (AAA): Hart’s minor league numbers aren’t anything to write home about this year. He’s got a 7.43 ERA in 13.1 innings, although he has struck out seventeen and walked only five. I wouldn’t think he’d be a likely callup given his past performance, but he’s been with the Cubs a couple of times before, so I don’t think it can be ruled out. He’d probably have to put together some good innings in Iowa first, though.

John Gaub (AA): Is in Tennessee, where he’s got a 2.16 ERA in 8.1 innings. He’s also struck out a comical 15 in that span, walking four. Having never pitched above AA it’s tough to say if he’d be able to get guys out in the majors. But he’s a lefty who, over his entire minor league career has struck out 14.1 per nine innings. I don’t know if he could get good lefties out at the major league level yet, but he’s obviously doing something right.

Quite a week for the Cubs.  Trades, injuries, hearings and unexpected performances.

• Aaron Heilman unveiled a new pitch.  Discarding his change-up for a splitter could yield dividends, as it gives hitters another look that’s not so close to his bread-and-butter pitch, the sinker.
• Aramis Ramirez separated his left shoulder, which puts him on the DL until July, if I were to guess (MRI and X-Rays are pending).
• Joey Gathright was shipped to Baltimore, land of the former Cubs, in exchange for a much needed utility man, Ryan Freel.
• Bobby Scales became a 31-year old rookie, making his debut after 11 years in the minors.  When the Cubs picked up Freel, it looked like Scales was on his way back down.  Then Aramis got hurt.
• Derrek Lee’s neck problem flared up, again.  Lee expects to be playing Saturday against the Brewers, as the flight from Houston didn’t seem to bother him.
• Carlos Zambrano went on the DL after straining his hamstring.  He was beating out a bunt when it happened, and the circumstances have raised the hackles of many Cubs fans and pundits.  To the point of absurdity in some cases (Jim Memolo).
• Zambrano’s replacement on the roster was Bobby Scales, but the Cubs demoted Gathright prior to the deal with the Orioles.  Gathright cleared waivers and evidently did not excercise his right, based on years of service, to refuse the assignment and become a free agent.  Wise move.
• Taking Zambrano’s spot in the rotation is Randy Wells.  Wells has four relief appearances under his belt (one with the Blue Jays, before they returned the Rule 5 pick to the Cubs) and has had some success starting for the Iowa Cubs.   He went five shut-out innings in Miller Park, and left in line to win the game.  Mr. “I’ve got a new pitch” served up his old, reliable sinker for a gopher ball to blow it, though.
• Turns out Ryan Theriot is a power hitter, thanks to some training device called the Fuzz or something like that.  Whatever works, but let’s not forget to hit the ball the other way, too.
• Milton Bradley’s appeal was heard, no word yet on the decision.  Bradley has never appealed any of his prior suspensions, and he testified the umpire stepped towards him, initiating the brim-to-brim contact.
• Ted Lilly pitched well on the road, pigs went ice sailing in hell.
• Jeff Samardzija’s lack of legitimate secondary pitch got him back where he belongs.  Iowa.
• Chad Fox was added to the 40-man roster and took Samardzija’s spot in the bullpen.

Randy Wells makes his first major league start today, filling in for Carlos Zambrano. Of course, given the choice, everyone would rather have Zambrano on the mound than Wells. But Zambrano’s power bat aside, the Cubs might not suffer a ton from having Wells fill in for a couple of starts.

Zambrano is not off to the greatest start this season. His ERA is 4.50, which isn’t where you’d like to see it, but isn’t awful (in fact, it’s more or less average). But he’s given up more hits than innings pitched, even though his strikeout numbers are up over last year and his walks are down. But the point remains: people are making decent contact off Z early this season.

Wells, who the Cubs reacquired when the Blue Jays designated him for assignment last season, is off to a hot start in Iowa. He’s got a 2.77 ERA, and has 21 strikeouts in 26 innings. Of course, that’s Iowa. But Baseball Prospectus has a method for translating minor league statistics to major-league equivalents, and so far, even after you adjust for the level of competition, Wells has done a shade better than Zambrano this season. So there might not be a huge drop-off - over a few starts, it’s possible Wells would pitch better than Carlos.

But the odds are there will be some sort of a dropoff. There’s a reason Wells was in AAA and Carlos isn’t. One projection system, ZiPS, projected Carlos to have a 3.81 ERA this season, and Wells to have a 4.94. (There are other projection systems with different numbers for Wells, but I like ZiPS for this because it actually projected him to start some games, and starting and relieving are different.) So if those numbers held true, you could say over nine innings, Zambrano will allow more than a run less than Wells. Over a six inning or so start, that’s maybe .7 runs difference. Obviously you would prefer the pitcher who allows fewer runs, but the difference isn’t too big a deal over a few starts.

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